- The Chiefs are a 2.5-point home favorite against the Lions.
- The Lions have won each of their last nine games following a road win.
- My Chiefs vs Lions prediction is the Detroit Lions 1H Spread (+0.5, -110).
A pair of Super Bowl contenders meet on SNF in Kansas City as the Chiefs host the Lions.
Kansas City’s Week 5 result is to be determined. Currently, oddsmakers price Kansas City as a 3.5-point road favorite on Monday night in Jaguars vs Chiefs.
The Lions continued their winning streak and ATS success in Week 5. As 10.5-point road favorites, Detroit picked up a fourth straight win and cover in a 37-24 win over the Bengals.
Bet on Chiefs vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Chiefs vs. Lions: NFL Week 6 Odds
Chiefs vs. Lions Prediction
Sunday, October 5
Based on Detroit’s rest advantage over the Chiefs and Dan Campbell’s exceptional 1H ATS record, my Chiefs vs Lions prediction is the Lions 1H Spread (+0.5, -110).
Sunday’s game presents a tricky spot for the Chiefs. Kansas City returns home from a road MNF game, while the Lions played on Sunday.
Although it’s a back-to-back road spot for Detroit, Campbell’s first-half ATS record helps quell that concern.
Campbell is 38-12-2 ATS (76%) in the first half as a coach, assuming two factors:
- The Lions have 7-14 days between games
- The Lions’ opponent has 6-8 days between games
Most of that success has come as a favorite. In 26 games where Campbell is a 1H favorite, he’s 22-4 ATS.
However, this team also covered as 2.5-point 1H dogs against the Ravens in Week 3. Over the last four seasons, Campbell posted a 9-2-1 1H ATS record as a market underdog.
From a matchup standpoint, Detroit owns a massive advantage over the Chiefs defense.
Excluding Week 5, Detroit ranks fifth in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. On SNF, John Morton’s offense faces a Chiefs defense that is 24th in the corresponding defensive category.
Of greater concern? Kansas City hasn’t faced a true test in that metric yet.
Jacksonville (2nd) offers a challenge in Week 5, but Kansas City’s first four opponents averaged a rush offense DVOA percentage of -8.2%. For context, Detroit sits at +10.2%.
If Detroit runs the ball effectively and keeps the Chiefs offense sidelined, I predict they stay within the number in the first half.
Betting Chiefs vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 66% | 39% | 83% | 65% |
| Chiefs | 34% | 61% | 17% | 35% |
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
