Colts vs Ravens: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Colts vs Ravens prediction for their Week 1 matchup.

No movement has occurred in either the spread or moneyline. Notably, the over/under has fallen two points from market open (49.5 to 47.5).

Colts vs Ravens Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under

Ravens vs Colts Prediction

Based on the Colts’ offensive personnel losses during the offseason and Baltimore’s misleading defensive record last year, my Colts vs Ravens prediction is the Colts Under 22.5 Points.

Injuries piled up on the Baltimore defense last year. Despite poor luck in the form of the third-most adjusted games lost on defense, the unit still posted decent metrics.

Baltimore finished the season ranked 17th in defensive DVOA, including 10th against the run. By weighted DVOA, which places greater emphasis on later games, the Ravens ranked 13th on defense.

Indianapolis surged early before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles late in the season. But a lot of their early success came against bad defenses.

The Colts scored at least 28 points in eight of their first 10 games. The shortcomings came at Pittsburgh and fraudulently at the Rams.

In the latter, Adonai Mitchell dropped the ball entering the end zone for a turnover.

Outside a game against Denver, the offense achieved strong results against teams like Miami, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Arizona, Atlanta and the Chargers.

None of those teams possess the Baltimore defensive ceiling.

Most concerning about the Colts is how Jones’ Achilles injury holds up against the Ravens. Presumably, it will limit his mobility and turn him into a pocket passer.

Indianapolis traded Michael Pittman Jr. in the offseason, and Alec Pierce is dealing with an injury. If Pierce fails to reach maximum capacity, I question how the Colts pass efficiently.

Relying heavily on Jonathan Taylor could prove dangerous against the Ravens defense. Early last year, the defense posted strong run defense metrics at full health.

In Week 1, Baltimore held Buffalo to 108 team rushing yards. Running backs James Cook and Ty Johnson rushed for only 68 yards on 15 attempts. Of that output, 28 came on two attempts.

Presumably, the run defense will take a step forward with Nnamdi Madubuike returning from a season-ending injury.

Should Baltimore take a lead, it asks a big question of the Colts’ passing game, the weaker part of the offense. Those factors lead me to predict Indy stays under a mid-size benchmark.