- The Texans are -1.5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-0) visit Reliant Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (0-3-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Cowboys vs. Texans Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Cowboys vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cowboys | +1.5 +105 | 47 +100 | +125 |
| Texans | -1.5 -135 | 47 -135 | -150 |
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 50.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Cowboys vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today
- Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jake Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- KaVontae Turpin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Woody Marks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Cowboys
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| David Montgomery | +525 |
| Javonte Williams | +575 |
| Nico Collins | +800 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +875 |
| Dalton Schultz | +1050 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Cowboys
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | -150 |
| David Montgomery | -135 |
| Nico Collins | +135 |
| CeeDee Lamb | +135 |
| George Pickens | +165 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Cowboys
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 77.5 -115 | 77.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins | 71.5 -115 | 71.5 -115 |
| George Pickens | 67.5 -115 | 67.5 -115 |
| Dalton Schultz | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Cowboys
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 56.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 |
| David Montgomery | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| Woody Marks | 35.5 -115 | 35.5 -115 |
| C.J. Stroud | 11.5 -111 | 11.5 -118 |
| Dak Prescott | 10.5 -115 | 10.5 -115 |
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 26.87% ROI).
- Cowboys are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -35.42% ROI
- Cowboys are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- CowboysCowboysCowboys are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-3 (-3.4 Units / -100% ROI).
- Texans are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -100% ROI
- Texans are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Texans are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Cowboys are 2-6 (.250) after a win since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Cowboys are 1-2 (.333) this season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Cowboys are 1-4 (.200) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .328.
The Cowboys are 2-7 (.222) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2025 season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 7-1 (.875) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 134.8 rushing yards per game since the 2025 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 9-1 (.900) after a win since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .565.
Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have been successful on just 22.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 30.9% of passing plays since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2025 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 244.9 passing yards per game since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys have an average drive start position from the 27.3 yard line since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average drive start position from the 26.8 yard line since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Cowboys WRs have averaged 23.0 targets per game since the 2025 season — highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed just 9.8 receptions per game to WRs since the 2025 season — T-4th-lowest in NFL.
The Cowboys have an average drive start position from the 32.5 yard line this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average drive start position from the 31.7 yard line this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats
The Cowboys have converted first downs on 7 of 11 plays (64%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 27%.
The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of 50% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Cowboys have run the ball on 16% of plays (40 carries/244 plays) on 3rd down since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Cowboys have run the ball on 38% of plays (26 carries/69 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2025 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 9% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have not been flagged on offense in the red zone this season — T-fewest in NFL.
The Texans ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 3 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Texans have gone three and out 20 times in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats
The Cowboys defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 5 times this season — T-most in NFL.
The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 56% in the 1st half since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed an average of 23.5 fantasy points per game to QBs since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16.5.
The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of 140.2 with a light front (103 Pass Attempts) since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 86.9.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against play action passes since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Texans defense have allowed -2.41 epa per play with a light rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays on motion plays since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Only 11% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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