Dolphins vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL Week 4, TNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 11:10 AM
  • The Bengals (1-2) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins (3-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch the game on Amazon Prime Video

The Miami Dolphins (3-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Bengals are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Bengals Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Dolphins+3.5 -11048.5 -110+155
Bengals -3.5 -11048.5 -110-190

Dolphins vs. Bengals Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this Week 4 game with 64.0% confidence.

Dolphins vs Bengals Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread this Week 4 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Dolphins and Bengals, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joe Burrow has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Joe Burrow has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Tee Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bengals vs Dolphins

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Ja'Marr Chase +500
Joe Mixon +550
Jaylen Waddle +750
Tyreek Hill +750
Tee Higgins +800

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bengals vs Dolphins

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Ja'Marr Chase -175
Joe Mixon -150
Tyreek Hill -110
Jaylen Waddle +100
Tee Higgins +110

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bengals vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Tee Higgins 64.5 -115 64.5 -115
Ja’Marr Chase 73.5 -115 73.5 -115
Tyler Boyd 40.5 -115 40.5 -110
Hayden Hurst 27.5 -115 27.5 -115
Chase Edmonds 13.5 -110 13.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bengals vs Dolphins

Player Name Over Under
Joe Mixon 65.5 -115 65.5 -115
Chase Edmonds 32.5 -115 32.5 -110
Raheem Mostert 39.5 -115 39.5 -110
Joe Burrow 10.5 -120 10.5 -110
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+14.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 3Q Spread in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.05 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.85 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins have gone 3-0 (+3 Units / 88.24% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 116.67% ROI
  • Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Dolphins are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 1-2 (-1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI).

  • Bengals are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.7 Units / -60.64% ROI
  • Bengals are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
  • Bengals are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Dolphins are 5-2 (.714) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .465.

The Dolphins are undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 22 points since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .745.

The Dolphins are 7-3 (.700) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .538.

The Dolphins are 8-4 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .581.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Bengals are 2-2 (.500) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Bengals are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .581.

The Bengals are 4-3 (.571) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.

The Bengals are 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have run 53.1% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — third-best in NFL. Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run 51.3% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bengals have a third down conversion rate of 45.6% in the second half since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47.1% in the second half since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bengals are averaging just 2.3 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — fourth-best in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged just 75.0 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of just 100.5 rushing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on first down this season — second-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry on first down this season — fifth-best in NFL.

Dolphins TEs have 68.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of65.2 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins had a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bengals have 22 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Bengals had 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins’ opponents have not attempted a two-point conversion (47 PATs) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Dolphins defense allowed 21 first down receptions in Week 3 — most in NFL.

Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted TEs 33% of the time (35 Pass Attempts/107 plays) since Week 17 of the 2021 Season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bengals defense forced 4 turnovers in Week 3 — tied for most in NFL.

Only 6% of the plays run against the Bengals have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Bengals defense has allowed at least 5 yards on 28% of first down plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.