Dolphins vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

• The Vikings are -10.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
• Total (Over/Under): 43 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (0-3-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (3-0-0) on Oct. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 pm in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Vikings Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

Bet now on Vikings vs Dolphins & all NFL games with BetMGM

Dolphins vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 74.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 68.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Vikings vs Dolphins and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

• Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Malik Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
• Greg Dulcich has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
• Justin Jefferson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Dolphins

Dolphins Best Bets:

• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+2.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+2.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+5.84 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

• Dolphins are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
• Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• DolphinsDolphinsDolphins are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

• Vikings are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 108.57% ROI
• Vikings are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
• Vikings are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

Dolphins are 0-13 (.000) when allowing 22 or more points (T-worst in NFL) and 1.000 when allowing less than 22 points since the 2025 season (T-best in NFL).

Dolphins are 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns (5th-best in NFL) and just .143 when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2025 season (worst in NFL).

Dolphins are 3-12 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of 4+ yards (T-6th-worst in NFL) and .800 when allowing 1ess than 10 plays of 4+ yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-9th-best in NFL).

The Dolphins are 2-8 (.200) on the road since the 2025 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .453.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Vikings are 9-3 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have turned the ball over 29 times since the 2025 season — 4th-most in NFL.

The Vikings are 7-1 (.875) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .497.

The Vikings are 12-7 (.632) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .525.

The Vikings are 10-4 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2025 season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have a third down conversion rate of just 20.0% in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 27.3% in the 4th quarter this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Vikings TEs have averaged just 5.6 targets per game since the 2025 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 6.2 receptions per game to TEs since the 2025 season — T-2nd-highest in NFL.

The Vikings are 9-3 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have turned the ball over 29 times since the 2025 season — 4th-most in NFL.

The Dolphins have been successful on just 30.6% of plays they have run this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed a success rate of just 31.3% this season — best in NFL.

The Dolphins have been successful on just 24.3% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed a success rate of just 34.8% on pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — best in NFL.

The Dolphins have been successful on just 26.1% of plays they have run with motion this season — worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed a success rate of just 33.3% against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 29% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 26% of plays in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 26% of plays on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings have run successful plays on 20% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 30% of plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 19% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense have yet to sack an opposing QBs when they have pressured the QB (13 pass attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 80% (61 completions/76 attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 67% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed 12.1 yards per play against play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

Only 20% of the plays ran against the Vikings were in their own territory in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Vikings defense blitzed on 47% of plays in Week 3 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Vikings defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (58 completions/114 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 1.5 points per Red Zone drive this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Vikings vs Dolphins and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

If you’re looking for more NFL odds, check out the sportsbook’s betting markets throughout the year.

From futures like Rams Super Bowl odds and Lions odds to make the playoffs to game odds like spread, money lines, and totals, there’s never a break in the action.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!