NFL Expert Picks: Week 10 Bets Include Steelers, Cowboys

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 10 based on NFL odds at BetMGM.

Odds for predictions are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

NFL Week 10 Expert Picks 2026

Cowboys vs 49ers Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Spread (+4, -108)

Based on the 49ers’ misleading defensive record and the Cowboys’ misleading game result on Sunday, my Cowboys vs 49ers prediction is the Cowboys Spread (+4, -108).

Dallas required overtime on Sunday in Indianapolis. But the underlying metrics suggested the Cowboys thoroughly dominated the Colts as a 4.5-point road favorite.

The Cowboys outgained the Colts 508-271 and posted a 7.2-4.6 yards per play advantage. Two ill-timed Cowboys turnovers helped the Colts stay within striking distance.

Meanwhile, the 49ers looked like total worldbeaters against the Raiders off their bye week. But a lot of luck aided what was a misleading margin of victory.

Red zone chances finished 4-2 in San Francisco’s direction. The 49ers added a defensive score and forced five turnovers as a 10-point home favorite.

But this is not a good defense as currently constructed. Previously, we’ve seen the defense struggle to limit opponents moving the ball.

Washington and Atlanta both amassed at least four red zone opportunities against this defense. Jacoby Brissett led the Cardinals to five red zone opportunities in Week 3.

Excluding Week 9, San Francisco ranks eighth in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. However, it has come against the 26th-hardest set of opposing offenses.

The Cowboys offer a stiff test for San Francisco’s defense, especially given the 49ers’ weakness at corner. Accordingly, I predict the Cowboys stay within the number.

Bengals vs Steelers Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers Spread (+3.5, -108)

Based on Pittsburgh’s extra rest and their offensive success in Week 3 against Cincinnati, my Bengals vs Steelers prediction is the Steelers Spread (+3.5, -108).

I remain skeptical of the Steelers defense, especially in relation to the Bengals offense. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in pass defense DVOA, but it struggled against good offenses.

In Week 3, the Steelers defense recorded a 94.1% pass defense DVOA rating against Cincinnati. It was the worst effort of the season for Patrick Graham’s unit.

The only case for optimism is a Week 9 bye for Pittsburgh. Additionally, Cincinnati returns home to play on Sunday Night Football after a Week 9 trip to Madrid.

Is that enough to quell the concern? Your guess is as good as mine.

Where I’m hopeful with Pittsburgh is their previous offensive success against Cincinnati. Most encouraging from Week 3 is their demonstrated ability to run the football.

Pittsburgh recorded a 22.4% rush offense DVOA grade against the Bengals. They graded higher only in their home games against Indy and Cleveland.

Mike McCarthy’s offense averaged seven yards per play against Cincinnati. Recently, we’ve seen the Bengals defense struggle against inferior opponents.

The unit allowed Tennessee to post its best offensive DVOA output of the entire season. The Bengals defense also struggles to defend opposing tight ends, a staple of Pittsburgh’s offense.

Add in that Cincinnati surrendered an 18.8% rush defense DVOA grade against Tennessee – its worst since the trip to Pittsburgh – and I predict the Steelers stay within the number.

NFL Week 10 Predictions by Public Consensus

Get up-to-date NFL public betting data on all Week 10 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.