Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

• The Buccaneers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Falcons
• Total (Over/Under): 45 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5-0) on Nov. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Tampa, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 50.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

• Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 55% ROI)
• Michael Penix Jr. has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Bijan Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.55 Units / 54% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• Bucky Irving has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• Bucky Irving has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
• Cade Otton has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Sean Tucker has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.10 Units / 57% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

• The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.05 Units / 65% ROI)
• The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games at home (+2.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 3-4 (-1.3 Units / -17.11% ROI).

• Falcons are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -7.59% ROI
• Falcons are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
• FalconsFalconsFalcons are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 2-4 (-2.4 Units / -30.97% ROI).

• Buccaneers are 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -27.72% ROI
• Buccaneers are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
• Buccaneers are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Falcons are 4-11 (.267) when making less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (T-8th-worst in NFL) and .778 when making 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (9th-best in NFL).

The Falcons are 4-11 (.267) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2025 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .415.

The Falcons are 1-3 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .434.

The Falcons are 1-7 (.125) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2025 season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .224.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

Buccaneers are 5-11 (.312) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game (9th-worst in NFL) and .625 when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season (10th-best in NFL).

The Buccaneers are winless (0-3) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .434.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have been successful on 47.9% of rush attempts with motion this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed a success rate of 48.4% on rush attempts against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers were successful on 53.2% of rush attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed a success rate of 56.5% on rush attempts last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers went three and out on 10% of their drives last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Falcons forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged just -0.61 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2025 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just -0.81 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2025 season — best in NFL.

The Falcons have run just 12.7% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponent to run just 11.9% of plays in the red zone since the 2025 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Falcons have a third down conversion rate of 38.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 4 — best in NFL. The Buccaneers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since Week 4 — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons have converted late downs on just 23 of 351 plays (7%) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 11% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 10% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Falcons have averaged -0.84 epa per play against tight coverage this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 7 — most in NFL.

15% of the Buccaneers offense’s first downs (3 of 20) came through the air in Week 7 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 30% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Buccaneers threw the ball 18% of the time (11 Pass Attempts/60 plays) in Week 7 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense forced 4 turnovers in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Falcons defense have yet to sack an opposing QBs on 3rd and long (38 pass attempts) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

Offenses facing the Falcons have thrown the ball 61% of the time (286 Pass Attempts/465 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -1.04 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.14.

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -1.48 epa per play on contested throws since Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.13.

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -0.99 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

No plays run against the Buccaneers were in their own territory in the 1st half in Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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