Jets vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

• The Lions are -7 point favorites vs the Jets
• Total (Over/Under): 48 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The New York Jets (1-1-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (1-1-0) on Sep. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Jets vs. Lions Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Jets vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 61.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

• Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Geno Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• Geno Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Geno Smith has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 77% ROI)
• Isaiah Davis has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Sam LaPorta has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jake Bates has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Jets

Jets Best Bets:

• The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)
• The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Jets have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+3.12 Units / 19% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

• The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 1-0 (+1 Units / 45.45% ROI).

• Jets are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Jets are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
• JetsJetsJets are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

• Lions are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
• Lions are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
• Lions are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Jets are winless (0-3) after a win since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .573.

The Jets are winless (0-8) when losing at least one fumble since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .347.

The Jets are 1-9 (.100) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.

The Jets were 2-10 (.167) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

Lions are 10-1 (.909) when rushing for 100 or more yards (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2025 season (T-worst in NFL).

Lions are 2-8 (.200) when allowing 100 yards rushing or more (7th-worst in NFL) and .889 when allowing less than 100 yards rushing since the 2025 season (T-7th-best in NFL).

Lions are 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush (8th-best in NFL) and just .167 when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season (T-6th-worst in NFL).

Lions are 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 explosive run plays in a game (9th-best in NFL) and just .167 when allowing 3 or more explosive run plays in a game since the 2025 season (T-7th-worst in NFL).

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have averaged 0.54 epa per play against open coverage since the 2025 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed 0.56 epa per play with open coverage since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL.

The Lions have averaged 0.11 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed 0.18 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — worst in NFL.

Lions RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 18.8% of 48 carries this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed 10+ yards on 14.3% of carries to RBs this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

Jets QBs have been 64 sacked times since the 2025 season — 4th-most in NFL. The Lions have sacked the quarterback 56 times since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL.

The Jets have been successful on just 42.0% of pass attempts against a base rush since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed a success rate of just 42.5% on pass attempts with a base rush since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Jets TEs have averaged just 3.7 yards after the catch since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed just 3.6 yards after catch per reception to TEs since the 2025 season — best in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets are averaging 11.2 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2025 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.5.

The Jets averaged just 4.3 yards per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Jets averaged 13.0 drives per TD in the 1st half last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.5.

The Jets have averaged just 0.8 yards per play against a light rush since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.8.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions threw for 4 TDs in Week 2 — T-most in NFL.

The Lions ran successful plays on 88% of rush attempts against a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Lions ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Lions have thrown for 6 TDs this season — T-most in NFL.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense have forced three and outs on 43% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Jets defense have forced three and outs on 75% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Jets defense has allowed 12 touchdown receptions to RBs since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Jets defense forced 4 fumbles in Week 2 — T-most in NFL.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has blitzed on 29% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 8%.

The Lions defense has blitzed 45 times this season — most in NFL.

The Lions defense has blitzed on 27% of plays on 1st down this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Lions defense has blitzed on 50% of plays on 3rd and long this season — T-highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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