NFL Division Odds: Ranking Likeliest Worst-to-First Picks

The NFL division realignments started with the 2002 regular season. In the years since, worst-place division finishers have found success stealing a title the next year.

Only three years saw at least one team fail to go from worst to first in any division: 2014, 2019 and 2024. Every other season saw at least one team reach the pinnacle after finishing bottom.

In 2025, both the Bears and Patriots achieved the feat. The 2023 NFL season saw the Texans win the AFC South in DeMeco Ryans’ first year.

Below, I’ve ranked how likely I view the eight last-place teams from 2025 to win the division in 2026. NFL odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Ranking the Likeliest Worst-to-First NFL Teams in 2026

Arizona Cardinals (+10000)

It’s my opinion the Cardinals pose a better chance at winning the division than the implied probability suggests.

While they face the NFL’s hardest schedule by opponent win totals, much of the difficulty is contained within the division.

In terms of unique opponents, Arizona faces the softest schedule amongst the four teams.

That said, the easy games are backloaded on the schedule when Arizona likely jockeys for draft position.

The team is more talented than their market rating, but so much has to go right for Arizona to beat out Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle.

Cleveland Browns (+2000)

Ask me about the Browns pre-Myles Garrett trade and I could make an optimistic case. But after trading the current defensive player of the year, the case appears much thinner.

If there’s optimism for Cleveland, it’s the schedule. Outside the AFC North, the team plays the AFC South, NFC South and three last-place teams. More difficult opponents are at home, too.

Defensively, Cleveland projects to face the fifth-softest set of opposing offenses by 2025 DVOA ratings. Only once all year does Cleveland project to face a top-10 DVOA offense.

In a world where the defense maintains its top-10 DVOA rating, the Browns could surprise. However, questions at quarterback and offensive line leave Cleveland with a low ceiling.

Las Vegas Raiders (+2200)

Las Vegas made improvements compared to last year. Signing Tyler Linderbaum immediately boosts Ashton Jeanty’s ceiling while Klint Kubiak offers a higher ceiling as head coach.

But the NFL went and saddled the Raiders with a -13 net rest differential, per Sharp Football Analysis. Only the Chargers (-24) and Eagles (-15) face heavier rest discrepancies.

I’m also conscious of the fact Las Vegas finished second in adjusted games lost to injury on defense. It likely contributed to the unit jumping to 14th in defensive DVOA from 18th in ‘24.

The case for optimism? Las Vegas plays the easiest set of unique games amongst the AFC West.

Additionally, a 3-14 record last year measured 1.3 wins under expectation due to a 2-5 record in one-score games.

New York Jets (+2000)

Good things happening to the Jets will always be received with skepticism. Still, this is a team that played Brady Cook for five games last year en route to an 0-6 division record.

Granted, you likely need a Josh Allen injury for the Bills to fall off. New England’s offense, outside questions at offensive line, offers the most complete unit within the division.

But the Jets’ schedule ranks amongst the softest in the entire league. By 2026 season win totals, only five teams project to face a softer set of opponents.

Opponents ran really lucky last year, too. Last year, the Jets’ 2026 opponents won 149 games off 135.6 expected wins. It qualifies as the largest overperformance in the NFL.

Defensively, New York projects to see an easy schedule. Derived from 2025 offensive DVOA data, the Jets defense projects as the 21st-hardest opponent set in the NFL.

In a world where the Jets become the 2025 Jaguars and force a bunch of turnovers, it could steal the AFC East via a good defense.

Tennessee Titans (+850)

Bettors should place exactly zero stock in Tennessee’s offensive record last year. The offense faced the hardest set of opposing defenses of any team during a 17-game season.

Cam Ward (expectedly) looked bad against the schedule. But he looked better toward the end of the season as the schedule softened (see games vs. San Francisco, New Orleans).

An easier schedule, and Brian Daboll’s arrival as offensive coordinator, should boost Tennessee’s offensive production.

Defensively, the unit projects to face an easy schedule after spending rather heavily.

Last year, Tennessee played the eighth-hardest defensive schedule. This year, the unit projects to face the 22nd-hardest defensive schedule.

Both Houston and Jacksonville achieved success last year on the backs of good defenses. Annually, that side of the ball fluctuates more than offense (barring a quarterback injury).

Robert Saleh will call a defense bringing Jeffrey Simmons back from injury. If the schedule plays as soft as expected, Tennessee could surprise as a division winner.

New York Giants (+550)

If Malik Nabers is 100% healthy – and it remains to be seen – a strong positive regression case exists in New York.

That said, the offense is going to need to look so good in order to overcome what I expect is a horrific defense.

Good news first: the Giants finished 1-7 in one-score games last year. It led to the team finishing 1.7 wins under expected.

On offense, only nine teams created more red-zone opportunities.

Of the 15 teams that finished with a positive red-zone differential (opportunities for minus opportunities against), only two teams won six or fewer games. One was the Giants

Now the bad news: the team traded Dexter Lawrence and, outside edge, lacks defensive talent. Next year, they project to face the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses.

New Orleans Saints (+240)

It might surprise bettors to see the fourth-place Saints as the second-favorite to win the division. But when you combine the schedule with some data, it starts to make sense.

Common opponents are difficult for all four NFC South teams. How the unique opponents break gives a sizable advantage to the Saints.

By opening win totals, the Saints’ unique opponents combine for a 17.5-win projection. All other NFC South teams face unique opponents owning a 28.5-win projection or higher.

Crucially, New Orleans improved its defensive record radically as opponent quality eased last year. The unit ranked 13th in defensive DVOA vs. 11th in weighted defensive DVOA.

Add in potential positive regression from a 3-5 record in one-score games and I predict the Saints win the NFC South.

Detroit Lions (+160)

Odds favor the Lions to win the division after a 9-8 season last year. The record ranked as the best amongst all the last-place finishers.

By losing both games to Minnesota, the Lions earned an enormous scheduling advantage.

Detroit faces the easiest schedule in the NFL by 2026 win totals and the easiest set of unique games. Here are the unique contests for each NFC North team:

• • Chicago: Eagles, Seahawks, Jaguars
  • Green Bay: Cowboys, Rams, Texans
  • Minnesota: Commanders, 49ers, Colts

• Detroit: Giants, Cardinals, Titans

Schedule aside, the Lions really impressed me on offense last year. Despite losing Ben Johnson, the unit finished seventh in offensive DVOA (+11.8%).

In Johnson’s final season before moving to Chicago, Detroit ranked third at 19.9%. They also achieved last year’s feat despite 3.7x as many injuries to the offense.

Paired with a 3-5 record in one-score games, I expect Detroit takes back the NFC North in 2026.