NFL Sleeper Picks: 2 Potential Surprise Playoff Teams

Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars kept alive a long-running streak for surprise playoff teams.

Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams, at least one team with a win total of 7.5 or less reached the postseason. In some cases, it happened to multiple teams.

Jacksonville qualified as a division winner last year. In 2024, the Bucs and Commanders reached the postseason with their win totals set at 6.5 and 7.5, respectively.

Will the streak continue this season? Let’s dive into the likeliest surprise playoff teams in relation to their NFL odds.

2 Best Surprise NFL Playoff Candidates 2026

New Orleans Saints (+185 to Make Playoffs)

It would surprise me if the Saints reach the playoffs as a wild-card team. From a betting calculus standpoint, the price to win the NFC South likely makes more sense given the Saints’ schedule.

Kellen Moore’s team projects to face the second-easiest schedule in the NFL by opponent win totals. Most of the ease is contained within the division and the Saints’ unique games.

All four NFC South teams face the AFC North and NFC North in common games. But the Saints enjoy an advantage by playing uniques against the Cardinals, Raiders and Giants.

Despite playing some good offenses, the schedule – on the whole – shapes up rather easily for the defense.

Based on 2025 DVOA ratings, the Saints project to face the league’s third-easiest set of offenses.

Tennessee Titans (+400 to Make Playoffs)

As a last-place finisher in 2024, Tennessee was primed to begin the Cam Ward era with a soft schedule. In reality, the complete opposite happened.

By 2025 season win totals, the Titans projected to face the league’s 26th-hardest schedule. In reality, they played the second-hardest NFL schedule, leading to another dismal season.

Ward experienced the brunt of the difficulty. He faced the hardest set of opposing defenses in the entire league, with opponents averaging a -6.3% defensive DVOA rating.

By comparison, the Colts faced the second-hardest set of defenses at a -4.4% clip. Even more distressing for Ward, he faced the hardest set of defenses of any QB over the last six years.

The offense (presumably) cannot look any worse than it did in 2025. Additionally, Tennessee finished a win under expectation due to a 2-5 record in one-score games.

Additionally, a revamped defense projects to face the league’s 22nd-hardest set of opposing offenses. Those factors could lead to a flawed market perception of Tennessee’s true quality.