Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Pick: Week 6

Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Jaguars vs Texans prediction for their Week 6 London matchup at Wembley Stadium.

Jaguars vs Texans Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total

Texans vs Jaguars Prediction

Based on Jacksonville’s misleading defensive record and the Texans’ strong passing game with Nico Collins, my Jaguars vs Texans prediction is the Texans Over 19.5 Points (-145).

Legitimately, the only advantage Jacksonville has in this game is the continuity factor. Purely from a matchup standpoint, this offers a potential negative regression spot for the defense.

Before Week 5, I covered how the Jaguars defense is wildly misleading. Somewhat unsurprisingly, regression failed to materialize against a short-handed Eagles team.

What remains mind-numbing is how well the Eagles threw on Jacksonville in the first half. In the opening 30 minutes, the Eagles recorded a +0.511 dropback EPA per play.

Although it came via high-leverage third downs, the Texans offense poses a significantly higher challenge for Jacksonville.

For the season, Philadelphia ranks 25th in pass offense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. Houston – including a period without Nico Collins – ranks sixth.

Houston’s best offensive performances came with Nico Collins available. In Week 1 and Week 4, the offense averaged a 47.1% pass offense DVOA rating against Buffalo and Dallas.

Without Collins, Houston averaged a 3.7% pass offense DVOA rating against Cincy and Indy. After Week 5 in Tennessee, Houston’s pass offense DVOA rating rose from 25.4% to 32.9%.

Jacksonville surrendered three red zone attempts in three of five games this year. The only games where they surrendered under 2.5 came against Cleveland and Philadelphia.

The last time we saw these teams play, Davis Mills led the offense to 30 points. While Travis Hunter missed the game for Jacksonville, the same can be said for C.J. Stroud.

Add in the Marvin Harrison Jr. acquisition, and I predict the Texans clear a low number as underdogs on Sunday.