It’s time to pump the brakes on the Jaguars defensive love.
After Liam Coen’s team moved to 3-1, NFL observers were ready to declare this team the chosen one. They’re a Super Bowl contender! Trevor Lawrence is the MVP! Anthony Campanile’s defense is impenetrable!
I’m not here to slander the Jaguars offense. Liam Coen has worked wonders for the unit, and Lawrence is operating at a high level.
Instead, I’m here to say the defense isn’t nearly as good as the average NFL observer believes. If or when the defense regresses, it will put more pressure on Lawrence’s shoulders.
Timing the regression is another story. But the Jaguars’ underlying metrics suggest NFL odds are currently mispricing this team as a contender for the AFC & the Super Bowl.
If the regression hits, the Jaguars are nowhere close to a Super Bowl threat. Heck, Coen’s team might even fail to reach the postseason if all goes wrong.
The Jaguars Defense is Built on Turnovers, Not Success
Annually, teams that rely on defense to win games tend to experience sizable regression. After all, defense (usually) proves far more volatile than offense year over year.
Teams that experience the largest regression often do so for one reason: turnover regression.
Limiting opponent success is (generally) more predictive than forcing turnovers. Unless you’re the Pittsburgh Steelers, takeaways are generally random and unpredictable outcomes.
The Jaguars offer a perfect example of this notion. In 2024, the defense forced a league-low nine turnovers. Last year, Campanile’s unit forced 31 turnovers, second-best in the NFL.
It includes 22 interceptions for a defense that largely operated in a positive game state.
The trend has continued early into 2026. Through four games, Jacksonville forced eight takeaways, only one behind the league-leading Raiders.
All eight takeaways came via interceptions. Joe Burrow and Drake Maye contributed half by themselves. Bo Nix and Deshaun Watson threw one apiece.
Where those turnovers occurred is important to study. Nix and Maye both threw picks in the Jaguars END ZONE. Four of those seven came in Jaguars territory.
Jaguars Key Defensive Metrics by Week
| Opponent | Points Allowed | Opponent Red Zone Chances | Opponent Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Denver Broncos | 20 | 5 | 1 |
| New England Patriots | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 17 | 4 | 2 |
The sheer amount of turnovers led Jacksonville’s defense to rank well in advanced metrics. Entering Week 5, Jacksonville ranks third in defensive DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
Jacksonville joins four other teams boasting a -10% defensive DVOA rating or better (0 is average). Whereas others combined turnover luck with stops, the Jaguars rely on turnovers.
Here are the rankings of the other four best DVOA defenses in yards per play and defensive success rate (20-80% win probability):
- Seattle Seahawks: 1st, 4th
- Minnesota Vikings: 4th, 1st
- Los Angeles Rams: 2nd, 16th
- San Francisco 49ers: 3rd, 8th
Guess where the Jaguars rank in those stats? At 5.9 yards per play, they rank 29th in the NFL. It places them ahead of only three teams: Arizona, Indy and Dallas.
At a 42.8% defensive success rate excluding garbage time, Jacksonville ranks 13th. Better than the Rams? Yes. But when you factor in the Rams played better offenses, it looks less glossy.
What is important to mention is the dropback vs. rushing success rate. Jacksonville posted a 25.5% defensive success rate against the run vs. a 51% dropback success rate.
The latter output places them 24th in the NFL. While the rushing success rate looks good, I’d argue they’ve yet to face a genuinely strong rushing attack.
It hasn’t stopped the unit from performing poorly against the run. In Week 2, the Broncos recorded a 43.2% rushing success rate, placing Jacksonville’s defense 21st for the week.
Jaguars Defensive DVOA Performances by Week
| Week | Opponent | Defensive DVOA | Pass Defense DVOA | Rush Defense DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Cleveland Browns | -36.5% | -33.8% | -39.4% |
| Week 2 | at Denver Broncos | 33.1% | 64.4% | -0.6% |
| Week 3 | New England Patriots | -71.3% | -95.7% | -45.2% |
| Week 4 | at Cincinnati Bengals | -2.9% | 24.3% | -45.6% |
| Average | Through Week 4 | -19.4% | -10.2% | -32.7% |
Timing the Jaguars Defensive Regression
Attempting to predict when the Jaguars’ defense begins to regress is a difficult task.
I will be stunned if it comes against the Eagles. The following week against Houston offers some hope, but not if you give Jacksonville an edge via back-to-back London games.
Before Week 3, I predicted the Colts were going to win the AFC South. After Jacksonville’s bye in Week 8, the team gets Indianapolis at home.
That’s the spot where Jacksonville’s regression starts to appear, in my estimation. Last year, Jacksonville won both head-to-head meetings against the Colts.
It came with Daniel Jones playing one of eight quarters. In the first quarter of Week 14, Indianapolis posted a 56.3% offensive success rate (55.6% passing, 57.1% rushing).
Jacksonville scored 17 of 36 points on drives that ran under 30 yards. Two of their four touchdown drives measured under 30 yards.
After the Colts game in Week 8, the schedule looks awfully daunting.
Jacksonville faces three straight road games against Baltimore, Tennessee and the Giants. Coen’s team returns home to face the Titans in Week 12 before four of six on the road.
The opponents? Chicago (A), Pittsburgh (H, MNF), Houston (A), Dallas (A, SNF), Washington (H), Indianapolis.
Much like the Colts last year, this team could completely implode with a wildly difficult schedule. Accordingly, Week 8 appears to be a good target to sell this team within the betting market.
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