Why the Indianapolis Colts Can Win the AFC South

Shane Steichen started his make-or-break campaign in poor fashion with a 0-2 start.

The Colts looked horrific against the Ravens as home underdogs in Week 1. In Week 2, Indianapolis fought admirably as six-point dogs in Kansas City, falling 33-30 in overtime.

Entering a Week 3 matchup at home against Houston, the Colts are /embed to win the AFC South. Despite that price, they trail the 1-1 Jaguars by only one game.

But I’m here to say the price on Indy’s division viability fails to reflect the team’s true quality. As it stands, I predict the Colts win the division more often than their price implies.

Let’s dive into the analysis based on NFL odds from BetMGM.

AFC South Prediction: Colts Go From 0-2 to Division Winners

Entering the 2026 regular season, the Colts were projected to face the league’s 10th-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals.

A 0-2 start is less than ideal, but they’ve played two of the hardest games on their schedule. Baltimore began the season with an 11.5 win total while Kansas City began with a 10.5 total.

Over the next 15 games, they’re set to play opponents averaging an 8.1 season win total. That includes all six division games where the Colts could see some positive regression.

Last year, Shane Steichen’s team finished 2-4 in AFC South contests. They beat the Titans twice before dropping all four games against Houston and Jacksonville.

Both of the aforementioned teams relied on defense to achieve their success. Jacksonville showed some defensive weakness in Denver, while the Texans have looked weak on defense.

In Week 13 last year, the Colts closed -3 vs. Houston. They lost 20-16, but the offense failed on a fourth-and-1 from the Texans’ nine-yard line that could have swung the game.

Now, they’re a three-point home underdog against Houston. Has anything – other than a Daniel Jones injury – meaningfully changed about this team? I’d argue the answer is no.

Through two weeks, the offense has looked just as strong as it did early last year. Indianapolis ranks 16th in expected points added per play vs. 10th in offensive success rate.

The sample includes second in expected points added via the rushing attack and eighth in rushing success rate.

Is the defense a problem? I won’t sit here and pretend it isn’t. But you have to consider the level of opposition when evaluating the Colts defense.

Last year, Baltimore and Kansas City ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in offensive DVOA.

Despite those games appearing on the schedule, the Colts still projected to face the league’s second-easiest set of opponents based on last year’s offensive DVOA ratings.

Over a two-year sample size, the Colts project to face the league’s easiest set of offenses.

If the Colts win against Houston, this team could easily win five straight.

After playing the Texans, they likely get a Jayden Daniels-less Commanders team internationally. Then, the next four come against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Minnesota and Jacksonville.

By that point, this price could be long gone. Additionally, past precedent exists for 0-2 teams to win the division.

Last year, the Panthers and Bears won their divisions after starting 0-2. The Ravens and Rams achieved the same feat in 2024.

Houston did the same in 2023, while the Bengals came back from 0-2 to win the division in 2022. No team achieved the feat in 2021.

Of course, past success against the trend indicates no future success. Still, the offensive ceiling leads me to predict Indianapolis wins the division at a higher rate than these odds suggest.