Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Falcons vs Bears prediction for their Week 6 contest at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Falcons vs Bears Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Bears vs Falcons Prediction
Based on the buy-low opportunity on the Bears offense and the new information on Atlanta’s defense, my Falcons vs Bears prediction is the Bears Over 26.5 Points (-120).
Over 26.5 @ -120 Under 26.5 @ +100Going into Week 5, the Falcons defense looked amazing. Strong performances against the Packers and Saints quelled the concerns from a bad Week 2 showing against Carolina.
Baltimore then showed that good offenses can move the ball well against Atlanta, particularly on the ground.
The Falcons defense regressed from a -29.9% defensive DVOA grade against the Packers to a -0.5% grade in New Orleans. Then, they further regressed to a 1.9% rating vs. Baltimore.
Most concerning are the rush defense DVOA performances. Atlanta recorded two rush DVOA grades above -28% and plummeted to a 47.5% grade against the Ravens.
Chicago has struggled to establish the run since Week 1. After recording a 36.4% rush offense DVOA grade against Carolina, the rushing threat averaged a -16.6% rating since Week 2.
The unit produced success in Week 2 against Minnesota, but turnovers near the goal line contributed to a poor DVOA rating.
Still, this remains an offense that finished third in rush offense DVOA last season. It’s also a unit that will likely get Caleb Williams back from a hamstring injury on Sunday.
In Williams’ starts this season, the Bears scored 59 points against Carolina and three against Minnesota. However, the Bears averaged 3.5 red zone opportunities in those games.
Plus, even if the rushing attack fails to reach expectations, Chicago will enjoy another advantage. Atlanta remains without corner A.J. Terrell against a powerful passing offense.
Entering Week 6, only one offense (Atlanta) has recorded greater volatility than Chicago. This week, I’m willing to embrace it and predict a bounceback effort against a fraudulent defense.
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