Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Browns vs Ravens prediction for their AFC North clash in Week 6.
Browns vs Ravens Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Ravens vs Browns Prediction
Based on Cleveland’s lucky defensive record and the unit’s lack of run-stopping prowess, my Browns vs Ravens prediction is the Ravens Over 22.5 Points (-105).
Over 22.5 @ -105 Under 22.5 @ -130It’s time to sell high on the Browns’ run defense in an unfavorable matchup.
After posting weak run defense grades in Weeks 1-2, the Browns showed signs of improvement in the last three games.
However, achieving the feat against Carolina, Pittsburgh and a Breece Hall-less Jets is hardly an accomplishment. Against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, Cleveland struggled to stop the run.
In their first two games, the Browns defense averaged a -0.3% rush defense DVOA rating. Over the last three games: -15%.
Now the unit gets a Ravens offense with superior rushing metrics to both the Bucs and Jaguars. Entering Week 6, Baltimore ranks fifth in rush offense DVOA.
Declan Doyle’s offense either boomed or busted on the ground this season. The unit recorded three performances north of 22% with two performances under -22%.
Last week in Atlanta, Baltimore recorded a 22.6% rush offense DVOA grade against a previously strong Falcons run defense.
Over the entire season, Cleveland offers an easier test. The Browns rank 17th in rush defense DVOA for the year, whereas Atlanta sits 11th in the category, per FTN Fantasy.
Plus, Cleveland projects as a strong negative regression candidate on defense.
Particularly concerning is the defensive performance against Tampa Bay, when the Browns posted their worst rush defense DVOA grade (2.1%).
The Bucs notched four red zone chances, but they converted only one into a touchdown.
Tampa Bay still scored 19 points despite the red zone inefficiency. Last week, Baltimore converted three-of-four red zone trips into touchdowns.
Accordingly, I predict the Ravens continue their strong offensive record against a weaker-than-perceived Browns defense.
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