- Oddsmakers opened the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +125 to win the NFC South in 2026.
- Tampa Bay started the 2025 season 6-2, but lost seven of the last nine to lose the NFC South.
- The New Orleans Saints (+360) are rated as the closest challenger to Tampa Bay.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds for the NFC South based on 2026 opening odds.Â
Oddsmakers opened with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+125) priced as market favorites. Last season, the Bucs started strong, but lost the division title on a tiebreaker after finishing the year 2-7.
All three remaining NFC South teams are priced similarly to win the division in 2026. New Orleans (+360) leads the trio with Atlanta (+375) and current holders Carolina (+380) rounding out the quartet.
2026 NFC South Odds: Buccaneers Open as Favorites
2026 NFC South Prediction
Based on New Orleans’ improvement with Tyler Shough and the 2025 defensive record, I predict the New Orleans Saints (+360) win the NFC South in 2026.Â
A 5-4 finish with Shough helped New Orleans rebound from a 1-7 start to 2025. Even with the strong finish, New Orleans still finished last in the NFC South.Â
The good news? That placement earns Kellen Moore’s team the second-easiest schedule next year by opponent win totals.Â
In terms of unique opponents, New Orleans carries a massive edge over their NFC South rivals. Here are the win totals for the three unique opponents in that division:
- New Orleans: 17.5
- Atlanta: 28.5
- Tampa Bay: 29.5
- Carolina: 30.5
The entire division faces the AFC & NFC North, so New Orleans gains a ton of ground with matchups against Las Vegas, Arizona and the Giants. Two of those games come at home.Â
Within the NFC South, New Orleans finished 3-3 last season with all three wins coming behind Shough.Â
If there’s a knock against the 2025 second-round pick, it’s his lack of experience in high-leverage situations. Last year, he took only 52% of snaps with a 30-70% win percentage.Â
But Shough led the NFL in expected completion percentage in those 171 plays (70.4%, min. 150 plays). His 1.1% completion percentage over expected ranked 13th of 31st.Â
Further contributing to my belief in New Orleans is the defensive improvement. DC Brandon Staley took the unit from 21st in DVOA two years ago to 13th last year.Â
Last year, the defense improved exponentially as it faced easier competition. From Week 1-9, the defense ranked 21st in EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate.Â
From Week 10 onward: second and first, respectively.Â
Next season, New Orleans projects to face an easier schedule of offenses. Last season, the defense cumulatively faced the league’s 12th-hardest schedule.Â
By 2025 opponent offensive DVOA ratings, only two teams – Indianapolis and Cincinnati – face an easier set of offenses.Â
Given those factors, I like the Saints’ price to go from worst to first in a weak division.
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