NFL Picks & Predictions: NFC South Division Winner

After a period of dominance from the Buccaneers and Saints, oddsmakers are expecting a new NFC South division winner in 2024. 

That’s the Atlanta Falcons, who signed quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason to help boost a dismal 2023 offense. Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson, a new coach and offensive coordinator, also arrived in Atlanta. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my best bet for the NFC South division winner. 

NFL Odds – NFC South Division Winner

• Atlanta Falcons: +100
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +260
• New Orleans Saints: +300
• Carolina Panthers: +1400

NFL Picks & Predictions – NFC South Division Winner

LEAN Atlanta Falcons to Win NFC South (+100)

Let’s start with the good news – Atlanta’s offense should perform drastically better in the 2024-25 season. 

Before succumbing to injury last season, Cousins proved amongst the league’s best quarterbacks. 

Sample his first eight games, and bettors will find the Michigan State product produced the following rankings amongst quarterbacks with 200+ plays, per rbsdm.com:

• EPA per play: 8th
• Success rate: 13th
• Completion Percentage Over Expected: 8th
• EPA + CPOE Composite: 6th

Over that same timeframe, outgoing Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder ranked 25th, 15th, 21st and 26th. 

So yes, Atlanta’s offense will almost surely improve next season. Plus, the Falcons finished as the only NFC South side with a winning record against playoff teams last season. 

Finally, Atlanta has another easy schedule in 2024-25 – they play only six games against playoff teams, four of which come at home. 

But there remains a big worry with this team – they can’t rush the passer and they can’t defend the pass. 

According to PFF, Atlanta ranked 27th in pressure grade and 25th in coverage grade. This offseason, they’ve done nothing to address those concerns. 

Plus, despite facing the second-easiest set of opposing offenses, Atlanta ranked 24th in defensive DVOA last season, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Will that matter in a division that includes Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young? Maybe not. 

All that said, my belief is that the gap between the Falcons, Bucs and Saints is smaller than the market suggests. Accordingly, it’s difficult for me to get involved at +100. 

Tampa Bay returned all their key free agents this offseason – Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. 

Plus, New Orleans radically underperformed last season, underperforming their expected win-loss record by 1.5 wins, per pro-football-reference.com. 

Remember, too, that the Falcons are only an injury away to a 35-year-old journeyman from Taylor Heinicke. 

That’s enough to keep me off the Falcons, even though my gut tells me they probably win the division.