Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Raiders vs Dolphins prediction for their Week 1 matchup.
Oddsmakers opened the Raiders at -3 against Miami. Las Vegas since rose to -3.5 despite staying at -190 on the moneyline.
Raiders vs Dolphins Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under
Dolphins vs Raiders Prediction
Based on Miami’s success stopping the run and the Raiders’ lack of threat at outside receiver, my Raiders vs Dolphins prediction is the Raiders Under 21.5 Points.
This game offers what may be the only opportunity all year to express optimism about the Miami defense. Last year, the Raiders finished amongst the league’s worst offenses.
Admittedly, Klint Kubiak offers an upgrade to the offense that played a difficult schedule. Last year, the Raiders faced the 12th-hardest schedule of opposing defenses.
But when you only have last year’s prior metrics to consider, it’s potentially a tricky matchup for Las Vegas.
My presumption is that the Raiders will lean on Ashton Jeanty. However, he’s set to face a Dolphins defense that finished 14th in rush defense DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.
Kolton Miller and Tyler Linderbaum should boost Las Vegas’ rushing profile. While there’s only room to go up from a 32nd-place rush DVOA rating, by how much remains the question.
Last year, Las Vegas scored 21 points in only four games. The offense cleared this benchmark in three of those contests, including twice against bottom-eight defenses.
Scoring 21 against Houston with Aidan O’Connell offers some potential optimism. But the Raiders also achieved success when it relied on explosive plays.
Only Tennessee, which faced the hardest set of opposing defenses, amassed fewer red-zone opportunities than the Raiders offense.
Conversely, Miami’s defense showed potential against bad offenses. The Jets (twice), Bucs, Saints and Commanders all stayed under this benchmark against Miami.
Turnovers also helped the Dolphins keep a powerful Buffalo offense to 13 points at home.
Miami’s presumed offensive strategy further informs this prediction. It’s my belief the offense runs the ball heavily and tries to keep the defense off the field.
If the Dolphins can shorten the game, I predict they keep a bad offense under a lofty number.
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