Below, bettors can find NFL odds and a Saints vs Falcons prediction for Week 4’s MNF matchup in New Orleans.
Saints vs Falcons Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
Given the Saints’ poor defensive output against the Raiders and Atlanta’s improved offensive record in Week 3, my Saints vs Falcons prediction is the Falcons Over 23.5 Points (-118).
I’m grappling with how to react to Atlanta’s offensive performance against Green Bay.
Has this unit turned a corner with Michael Penix Jr.? Or were they simply facing a defense on short rest after an overtime game?
What is encouraging for the Falcons offense is that New Orleans performed horribly on defense.
Entering Week 3, I was willing to excuse some of the Saints’ defensive performances. Calling a unit bad after playing the Lions and Ravens is hardly fair, given last year’s metrics.
I cannot make the same excuse after the defense played Las Vegas. The Raiders scored 22 points inside the first three quarters, generating a 55.6% dropback success rate.
New Orleans lacked an answer for Brock Bowers, who finished with 10 receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown.
If there’s a sign of optimism for the Saints, it’s how they performed against Ashton Jeanty.
New Orleans averaged a 24.1% rush defense DVOA rating in the first two games. In Week 3, the defense recorded its best rush defense DVOA output (-3.5%).
Atlanta achieved its Week 3 success almost entirely through Bijan Robinson. After posting a -19.1% rush offense DVOA rating in Weeks 1-2, the unit jumped to a +61.4% rating.
If this game comes down to Penix playing well, I question if Atlanta clears this line. Contributing to that skepticism is his splits against zone coverage and single high.
This season, New Orleans is running single-high coverage at the league’s third-highest rate. Last year, Penix ranked 28th of 33 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback against single high.
If, however, we learn that the Falcons’ rushing attack more closely resembles that of Detroit and Baltimore, I predict the Saints’ defense could deliver another bad performance.
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