Texans vs Titans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

• The Texans are -6.5 point favorites vs the Titans
• Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
• Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (0-4-0) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans (0-4-0) on Oct. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in Nashville, TN.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-140).

The Texans vs. Titans Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Titans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Texans vs. Titans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 65.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Titans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
• Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• David Montgomery has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• David Montgomery has hit the Longest Reception Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Titans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Cameron Ward has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.90 Units / 80% ROI)
• Tyjae Spears has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Michael Carter has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Daniel Bellinger has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.20 Units / 33% ROI)
• Wan’Dale Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

• The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.60 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.02 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

• The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+6.54 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Tennessee Titans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Tennessee Titans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-4 (-4.45 Units / -100% ROI).

• Texans are 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -100% ROI
• Texans are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• TexansTexansTexans are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Titans are 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -100% ROI
• Titans are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
• Titans are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Texans are winless (0-4) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Texans are 11-4 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2025 season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .589.

The Texans are 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2025 season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Texans are 5-4 (.556) on the road since the 2025 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .452.

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Titans are 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2025 season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Texans have intercepted 20 passes since the 2025 season — 5th-most in NFL.

The Titans are winless (0-12) when allowing 3 or more sacks since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Titans are 2-18 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.

The Titans are 3-18 (.143) since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .499.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans have averaged just -0.18 epa per play with motion since the 2025 season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed just -0.10 epa per play against motion since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Titans have run just 42.0% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to run just 38.8% of plays in their territory since the 2025 season — best in NFL.

The Titans have been successful on just 37.7% of pass attempts since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed a success rate of just 40.1% on pass attempts since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on rushes to the right side of the field since the 2025 season — worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right since the 2025 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Texans have been successful on just 38.1% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed a success rate of just 40.2% on rush attempts with a base front since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans have targeted RBs 10% of the time (16 Pass Attempts/152 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Texans have 18 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Texans have an average drive start position from the 22.7 yard line this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.2.

The Texans have run successful plays on 9% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have run successful plays on 34% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Titans have averaged -0.18 epa per play on motion plays since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Titans have averaged 0.17 epa per play against open coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.47.

The Titans have run successful plays on 33% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2025 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

Only 39% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against play action passes since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Texans defense have allowed -2.41 epa per play with a light rush since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

Only 11% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense has not had an opponent attempt a pass on 7 plays on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Titans defense have allowed 7.6 yards per play on contested throws since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

Offenses facing the Titans have thrown the ball 44% of the time (112 Pass Attempts/254 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 on 3rd and short (0 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 104.1.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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