Vikings vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

• The Vikings are -1.5 point favorites vs the Saints
• Total (Over/Under): 43 points
• Watch this game on FOX

The Minnesota Vikings (4-0-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (1-3-0) on Oct. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 pm in New Orleans, LA.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Vikings vs. Saints Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Vikings vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 63.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Vikings vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

• Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 50% ROI)
• Jordan Addison has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• Justin Jefferson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jauan Jennings has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Will Reichard has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Tyler Shough has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• Tyler Shough has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)
• Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.20 Units / 84% ROI)
• Daniel Carlson has hit the Field Goals Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

• The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.68 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 39% ROI)
• The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 17% ROI)

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

• Vikings are 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 54.55% ROI
• Vikings are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
• VikingsVikingsVikings are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Saints are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -16.67% ROI
• Saints are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
• Saints are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Vikings are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2025 season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Saints have turned the ball over 31 times since the 2025 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings are winless (0-3) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Vikings are 6-3 (.667) on the road since the 2025 season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .452.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Saints are winless (0-5) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.

The Saints are 2-10 (.167) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2025 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Saints are undefeated (3-0) when leading at the end of the first half since the 2025 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .769.

The Saints are 1-6 (.143) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2025 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .411.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have averaged just 0.28 epa per play against open coverage since the 2025 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed just 0.27 epa per play with open coverage since the 2025 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 23.8% of their drives in the first half this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives in the first half this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of just 13.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 14.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2025 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Vikings have been successful on just 41.7% of plays they have run on play action passes this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed a success rate of just 40.6% on play action passes this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Vikings have averaged just -0.08 epa per play in the second half since the 2025 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.09 epa per play in the second half since the 2025 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Vikings have a third down conversion rate of just 32.3% since the 2025 season — T-worst in NFL. The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 36.3% since the 2025 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings have run successful plays on 24% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Vikings targeted WRs 27% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/37 plays) in Week 4 — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 28% of pass attempts against a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 23% of plays against a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have scored on 14% of their drives (8/58) in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Saints have gone three and out 22 times in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

The Saints have gone three and out on 38% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2025 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Saints have run 290 plays this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed on 24% of plays since the 2025 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed on 28% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed 302 times since the 2025 season — most in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2025 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Saints defense allowed 5 rushing TDs in Week 4 — most in NFL.

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 100.2 open coverage (36 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 127.3.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 100% of pass attempts from their own territory in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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