Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Preview: Who Can Overcome Breezy Conditions?

When it comes to prognosticating PGA Tour events, there are plenty of courses that immediately push us to consider a specific skill set.

Torrey Pines? Target the better long- and mid-iron players.

Harbour Town? Go with the guys who keep it in the fairway.

Memorial Park? Try a big hitter.

Every time it’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship week, I instantly start looking at those who are best in breezy conditions.

Now, there’s an inherent problem here. Unlike iron play or precision or power, it’s difficult to pinpoint exact statistics to solve this riddle. Sure, we can look at the PGA Tour’s ranking of such numbers as launch angle and apex height off the tee – Davis Chatfield and Keegan Bradley lead those categories, respectively – but it hardly tells the entire story.

Instead, it might be smarter to simply analyze results and performance from other tournaments where the wind was blowing.

This week at Port Royal GC, it’s expected to blow between 10-20 mph for the first three rounds, only to increase to something in the mid-30s by Sunday. That’s not an insignificant number and identifying those best equipped to handle it could be the key to winning your wagers.

The rightful pre-tournament favorite this week is Ben James (+1000) and while I’m a big believer in him and think he’s on the threshold of an early-career victory, there are reasons to avoid the top of the board at a place where Adam Schenk (who was 125/1), Rafa Campos (300/1) and Camilo Villegas (125/1) have won over the last three years.

The good news is that everyone besides James opened at 25/1 or longer, so we’ve got plenty of decent options from which we’ll start.

I mentioned that apex height ranking above and while these stats might be useful this week, we have to examine ‘em upside-down. Well, Ben Kohles (+2800) ranks dead last in this category, hitting the ball on average nearly half the height of Bradley, who’s on top of this list. This isn’t just about picking out a low-ball hitter and blindly playing him, though. Kohles is an eye-popping fourth on the PGA Tour’s SG: Total ranking, behind only Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy, which tells us just how well he’s played when he’s gotten the opportunities this season.

His results in Bermuda aren’t anything too special – between 39th and 61st in each of his three attempts – but the 36-year-old is clearly playing some of the best golf of his life right now, having finished top-30 in each of his last 10(!) PGA Tour starts on the heels of a Korn Ferry win, and makes a ton of sense in this situation.

It was hardly a banner year for Seamus Power (+2800), but he did finish T-10 and T-11 in two of his last four regular season starts and already owns a T-7 and T-21 in the fall. And perhaps nobody enjoys this Bermuda trip more than the Irishman, who won here in 2022 and has never finished outside the top-40, posting results of 23rd or better in each of his last four starts. Common sense doesn’t always cash in the betting world, but if you’re seeking a play which checks all the right boxes, this is the one.

Granted, it’s reflected in his price, but Eric Cole (+3000) should rank pretty high on your list of players competing this week who wouldn’t shock you if they claimed a first PGA Tour victory. I’m not convinced this is the perfect spot for him, but the price (and the competition) make him intriguing.

These are the last eight PGA Tour results of Kevin Roy (+3300): T-13, T-32, T-24, T-19, T-26, T-31, T-62 and T-11. That’s an extremely high floor. The jury might still be out on his potential ceiling, but I’m bullish – and if he’s going to show it, it’ll be at an event such as this one. He finished in a share of eighth place here back in 2023.

Like Kohles, Zac Blair (+4000) is more about precision than power – and also like Kohles, he’s 36 years old and still seeking his first PGA Tour win, though there are plenty of signs for both that the window is still very much open. He posted a top-10 here last year.

It can’t be easy to essentially play an entire career on the DP World Tour, only to claim a PGA Tour card in your late-30s and have to make a million adjustments. John Parry (+4500) has made a very nice transition, however, making the cut in 20 of 24 starts, with eight top-25s, despite just a single top-10. This feels like a good spot to back a guy with a pair of wins on the Euro circuit – one in 2010; the other in 2024 – who was also T-11 at the U.S. Open earlier this season.

I’ve written this many times before and in many places, but I hate the idea of overrated/underrated lists, because any such rating is so subjective in the first place. Instead, I’d prefer to refer to a player as “overlooked” and Lee Hodges (+4500) certainly fits the description. He’s not going to wow anyone with any particular on-course asset, but he’s much better than PGA Tour average off the tee, with approach and on the greens. That said, I’ll admit Port Royal might not be the best fit, as he’s yet to break 70 in eight career rounds.

It’s difficult to analyze form at this time of year, when players aren’t competing as much as during the meaty part of the season, but Emiliano Grillo (+5500) was playing some nice golf before the pre-autumn part of the campaign, finishing the regular season with five results of 31st or better in his last six starts. He’s always been an accurate driver and solid iron player, which seems like a nice combination if he can get the balky putter working this week. If Kohles is my 1A play this week, then Grillo is my favorite price-per-pound buy at double the number.

Kevin Streelman (+6600) will turn 48 in a few weeks, but he recently showed he can still hang with the flatbellies of the PGA Tour, posting a T-5 at the Bank of Utah Championship, a feat made even more impressive by the fact that it took place on a course which should favor big hitters – or more to the point, bigger hitters than Streelman. This might be more of a top-10/20 play than outright, but I like him to keep some of that momentum going here.

Worth noting in these types of events: Davis Riley (+12500) doesn’t often find his way to the leaderboard, but when he does it’s a lofty ceiling. At a triple-digit price, he’s at least worth thinking about.

Two weeks ago, Ren Yonezawa (+12500) finished T-9 at the Baycurrent Classic in his native Japan, posting the low score of the final round and cruising past the likes of would-be contenders Adam Scott and Max Homa on the leaderboard. That result got him into this one, where the competition won’t be nearly as stiff. Perhaps he can keep that heater going.

He’s been playing some decent golf while splitting time between the PGA Tour and KFT and Tyler Duncan (+15000) has always been a player who tends to prosper in windy conditions, so I’ll definitely take a chance on him at this number.

There was a time when Cam Davis (+30000) was believed to be one of the game’s most promising up-and-comers, but his performance has come to a screeching halt in recent years, as evidenced by just five made cuts in 18 starts this season and an OWGR ranking outside the top-400.

Quite frankly, there’s not much reason to give him much consideration this week, but an Aussie who’s accustomed to playing in wind, has fared well on some short courses and has a massive price such as this next to his name might be worth a small nibble if you’re looking for another longshot at Port Royal.