Cognizant Classic Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Once upon a time, the Cognizant Classic – then known as the Honda Classic – seemed like it was being played in Chalk City instead of at PGA National.

In the three-year period from 2016 through 2018, there wasn’t a winner with pre-tournament odds longer than 20/1, as Adam Scott triumphed from that price in the first of those years, followed by Rickie Fowler at 15/1 and Justin Thomas at 10/1.

There were probably a few different reasons for this trend, from the pre-signature event days offering a feasible spot in the schedule for more big-name players in this field to the Palm Beach location giving some local stars a competitive advantage.

Whatever the case, that pattern has shifted severely in more recent seasons.

This is a tournament which has become ripe for underdogs, as the last seven winners have all started the week at 30/1 or longer – and in some cases, much longer.

Cognizant Classic Past Winner Odds

That’s an average of 95/1 for the last seven champions of this event.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Let’s go hit a longshot outright this week!

Look, I’m all for that, but it should go without saying that such a task is easier said than done.

In this 123-player field – which doesn’t have a Scottie Scheffler or a Rory McIlroy or even a Chris Gotterup on the tee sheet and instead opened with Shane Lowry as the favorite after a bevy of late withdrawals — 52 players are shorter than that 95/1 seven-year average, which means that our longshot options are limited.

I do, however, believe this is an opportunity to play some quantity over quality on your outright card. Instead of buying one blue-chip stock, let’s diversify the portfolio and invest in a group of players with potential.

All of that said, I can’t neglect one player who certainly doesn’t fit the longshot narrative, but absolutely owns some value in relation to his upside. Let’s start this week’s selections with a five-time major champion.

Cognizant Classic Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka (+2800)

You don’t have to remind me of this, because I’m going to remind you first: Koepka was my favorite outright play at the WM Phoenix Open just a few weeks ago. In case you can’t recall, he did not win. In fact, he didn’t even make the cut.

After grinding to reach the weekend during his return to the PGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open, Koepka wound up finishing dead last in the field with the flatstick. One week later, he switched from his five-time-major-winning blade putter to a mallet style at TPC Scottsdale and rolled it nearly as poorly, leading to that weekend off.

It’s an admittedly small sample size, but after two starts, he currently ranks second-to-last in the SG: Putting category, beating only rookie Marcelo Rozo. Those putting woes have led to some believing that Koepka can’t hang on the PGA Tour anymore, that his best days are behind him and his reputation as a winner is fleeting. I think that’s a foolish take.

Again, it’s only been two starts, but his driver has been about field average (and I expect that to improve), his irons rank 22^nd, and he’s been the sixth-best around the greens. I maintain that despite two results outside the top-50, his game isn’t all that far off, and maybe he just needs a change of scenery on the greens, which he’ll get on these Bermuda putting surfaces in his more familiar home state of Florida.

Not that every player in this field isn’t motivated to win, but Koepka knows an early-season victory will elevate him into the bigger events that he wants to play and give him a better ability to set his own schedule.

Throw in the fact that he’s 5-for-7 in making the cut here and was runner-up in 2019 and T-16 the last time he played four years ago and there are hints that it should be a more positive result than his first two of this year.

Now, don’t get me wrong: I don’t think this is some sort of no-doubt-about-it, slam-dunk outright play. Getting a proven winner, though, in friendly confines at the same price as one-time winners such as Aaron Rai and Keith Mitchell is a selection with plenty of upside. Here’s hoping the flatstick heats up. 

Aggressive Pick: Nico Echavarria (+6600)

I feel like every time I write about Echavarria, I essentially make the same point, so I’m not going to stop now: In my estimation, he’s one of the more underrated players on the PGA Tour.

Now in his fourth full season, he owns 25 top-25s in 93 starts – a rate of 27 percent which suggests a very solid floor. It’s his ceiling, though, which I’m targeting this week, as two wins and two other runner-up results in those 93 starts prove that when he plays well, he can be as good as anyone in a given field.

He admittedly hasn’t been great this year, as last week’s missed cut at the Genesis Invitational was his fourth in five starts. Like Koepka, however, I think a move to Bermuda greens should do him a world of good.

And also like Koepka – on a much smaller scale, of course – if I’m taking a shot a little further down the board, I like taking that shot on a player who’s shown he can win. There are plenty of guys with shorter odds than Echavarria this week who haven’t come close to his accomplishments over the previous three years.

Cognizant Classic Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Ryan Gerard (+320)

Even though he’s cooled off since his back-to-back runner-up finishes to start the season, I’d expect Gerard to be a very popular play this week.

Three years ago, while a member of the Korn Ferry Tour, he Monday qualified for this event and finished in fourth place, gaining Special Temporary Membership to the PGA Tour, which allowed him to compete in a full schedule of tournaments for the rest of the season, which if we connect dots, has led to him becoming a PGA Tour winner and top-30 player in the world who will qualify for each of the major championships.

It’s a lovely success story born through confidence, of which Gerard owns plenty. And while he didn’t fare great in signature events over the past two weeks – T-45 at Pebble and T-28 at Riviera – simply playing alongside the best players should embolden him in a field where now he’s one of the best. 

Aggressive Picks: Alex Smalley (+700) and Johnny Keefer (+800)

I’m offering up two picks here, because this is a tourney with plenty of outs, and your betting card should mirror that volatility. For example: If you usually place a half-unit on one player for a finishing position prop, my advice would be a quarter-unit on two players this week. It’s all about diversification.

Smalley is a player I had in a generalized group with the likes of Gerard and Jacob Bridgeman just last year – essentially, young players with a few years of experience, without a ton of fanfare, who always just seem to stick around on leaderboards. Now that the likes of those other two have vaulted their way into a higher echelon, I can certainly see Smalley following suit. He’s made the cut in four of five starts this season with a best finish of T-19 in his most recent one, while finishing T-18 here last season.

As for Keefer, the reigning KFT POY hasn’t gotten off to the fast start that many predicted, but a move to the East Coast might be exactly what he needs. Like many on this list, his ball-striking numbers have been terrific this season – ninth off the tee and 10^th with his irons – while his putter has yet to heat up. When it does, watch out – and it could very well happen this week.

Cognizant Classic Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Shane Lowry (+160)

Too easy? Perhaps, but during a week when the final exam looks difficult, I don’t mind answering a softball question. Look, there are no locks in betting – and especially in golf betting – but Lowry has figured a little something out at PGA National. He was runner-up in 2022, when a late-afternoon Sunday storm perhaps crushed his chances on the final few holes.

Since then, he’s finished 11^th or better each time and he’s shown a very high floor for a while now. Lowry remains one of those players about whom I’ve said his performance has outclassed his results. With just a single individual victory since his 2019 Open Championship win (the 2022 BMW PGA Championship), the Irishman is overdue to get into the winner’s circle. That could happen this week, but I’d rather bank on his high-level floor. 

Aggressive Pick: Lee Hodges (+550)

Full disclosure: I hemmed and hawed between Echavarria and Hodges for the aggressive outright spot in this preview and while I chose the former, the latter will likely still make his way onto my card at the same 66/1 number.

Before missing the cut here two years ago, he’d finished T-9 and T-14 in his only two previous starts. Deadly accurate off the tee with a strong iron game and solid putter, Hodges seems to fit the profile at PGA National and the one-time PGA Tour winner could be primed for another big week.

Cognizant Classic Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Max McGreevy (+175)

In six starts this season, McGreevy has gained strokes with his irons five times and was just barely below field average in the other. It feels like he’s ready to break out soon and there might be no better place than PGA National, where he was T-4 just a year ago.

I’ve long thought perhaps the best comp for McGreevy is his former Oklahoma State teammate Austin Eckroat, who just happened to win this event two years ago.

Aggressive Pick: Kevin Roy (+300)

In four starts so far this season, Roy’s tee-to-green game hasn’t been quite as good as it was last year, but he’s gotten plenty out of it, with a pair of T-13 results mixed in with two missed cuts. He was T-29 here a few years ago and in what’s become a wide-open field, makes a little sense at 90/1 in the outright market, as well.

Cognizant Classic Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: David Ford (+110)

There are weeks when my top-40 selections in the preview are simply players I don’t trust playing anything more aggressive. This week, I’m listing a few guys whom I don’t just like for top-40, but a ladder all the way up to top-10 or even top-five. It starts with Ford, who was last year’s No. 1-ranked player in PGA Tour U, from which he earned direct college-to-member status.

In his last five starts with ShotLink measurements, Ford’s iron play has been tremendous, gaining at least 1.44 per round on the field in three of those events, including each of his last two. The results haven’t equaled the approach play, as a T-13 at The AmEx remains his only finish better than 50^th during this span, but the UNC product owns a ton of talent and should be able to show off his stuff against a field devoid of superstars. 

Aggressive Pick: Sam Ryder (+125)

Only two players rank inside the top-10 this season in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. One of them is Bridgeman, who’s fresh off his first career victory and hasn’t finished outside the top-20 in five starts. The other? It’s Ryder, who actually leads Bridgeman by two spots in each of those categories, currently at third in iron play and fifth in putting.

Granted, that’s only based on five measured rounds over two tourneys, but it’s a nice little combo for a player who always sees a bump when returning to his native Florida. He didn’t get into the field until Taylor Pendrith was a late WD over the weekend, but now that he’s in, he makes a ton of sense at a place where he’s 5-for-5 making the cut, with two top-10s and three top-25s.

You can get a pretty appealing price for a top-40 here and I’m in favor of laddering this play all the way up to some very aggressive wagers, possibly even including a 100/1 outright. 

Cognizant Classic First-Round Leader Prediction

Conservative Pick: Luke Clanton (+10000)

I’ll admit that I don’t know much about the current state of Clanton’s game, but his alphabet soup of two MCs and a WD in three starts this season doesn’t bode well for positive vibes.

That said, his numbers aren’t too bad, especially with the irons – and he finished T-18 here last year. Not sure I trust him for a full four-round investment right now, but we know he’s got a ton of offensive firepower and he’s another guy who should get a confidence boost being back in Florida. 

Aggressive Pick: Austin Smotherman (+10000)

Of all the players listed in this preview, Smotherman might best epitomize the idea of backing players who have hit it well and could use a change on the greens. In four starts so far, he’s gained strokes with the irons and lost strokes with the putter each time, resulting in a T-8 at The AmEx and three MCs.

If this tourney is wide open, then the FRL market could be a literal dart toss. I like the idea of simply playing a few big numbers and this one makes some sense.