Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour will head to Mexico this week for the Mexico Open, Thursday through Sunday, at Vidanta.

It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, and with the Florida Swing beginning next week, many star players are taking the week off.

Defending champion Tony Finau headlines the field and has the best odds to win at +750. He finished last year at 24-under, which gave him a three-shot victory.

This is the event’s third year, although the first to be held in February. The previous two have been in late April. 

Finau is one of the six players in the top 60 of the Official World Golf Rankings to be teeing it up. The others include Nicolai Højgaard, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Fox, and Thorbjørn Olesen.

Vidanta Vallarta plays close to 7,500 yards and often features windy conditions thanks to the Pacific Ocean. This has the longer hitters having an advantage, as evidenced by the previous winners being Finau and Jon Rahm.

With generous fairways and distance being a premium, I will be targeting some of the longer hitters in the field.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

Mexico Open at Vidanta Prediction

Finau is expected to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta with a 11.76% implied probability, according to betting markets. Højgaard is next at 5.08%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

*All odds as of Feb. 20.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Best Bets

Tony Finau +750 Odds to Win

Ranked No. 24 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Finau is by far the best player in the field. He also has had a ton of success at this event. Not only did he win a year ago, he finished T-2 in 2022 when Rahm won. Finau is coming off a T-19 at the Genesis Invitational.

Brandon Wu +3500 Odds to Win

Aside from Finau, no one has a better course history than Wu. He finished third a year ago after finishing second in the inaugural event in 2022. Wu has missed two of four cuts so far this season but did finish T-18 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Sleeper Picks

Jake Knapp +4000 Odds to Win

Knapp is a PGA Tour rookie and is already off to a great start, finishing T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T-23 at the WM Phoenix Open. Known for his length, this should be a great course fit for him. The 29-year-old had 10 top 10 finishes last year on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Chris Gotterup +9000 Odds to Win

Gotterup is similar to Knapp, a PGA Tour rookie known for his distance. He isn’t off to as good of a start as Knapp, making just one cut in three starts. With a less-than-stellar field and a gettable course, this could be the week for Gotterup to make a name for himself on the PGA Tour.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Tony Finau Outright Win +750
• Patrick Rodgers Top-20 Finish +150
• Jake Knapp Top-20 Finish +175
• Chris Gotterup Top-20 Finish +300

This is one of my shorter cards of the year, relying on course history and my Fantasy National model.

Finau is my only outright play this week, and I don’t do this very often, but given the strength of the field and his course history, I’m all in on him this week.

With props, I prioritized longer hitters in Knapp and Gotterup, and Rodgers has great course history with two 10th-place finishes.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Taylor Pendrith
2. Nicolai Højgaard
3. Tony Finau
4. Davis Thompson
5. Michael Kim
6. Stephan Jaeger
7. Cameron Champ
8. Erik van Rooyen
9. Callum Tarren
10. Garrick Higgo