Best PGA Picks this Week for the Houston Open

Two stops in Texas begin on the PGA Tour this week with the Houston Open from Memorial Park. 

Current golf odds price Min Woo Lee (+1200) as the pre-tournament favorite. Oddsmakers installed the defending champion as the favorite following Scottie Scheffler’s withdrawal on Tuesday morning. 

Other golfers priced amongst the favorites include Chris Gotterup (+1600), Jake Knapp (+1800), Brooks Koepka (+2000) and Sam Burns (+2500).

Let’s dive into the selections. Prices are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Best Golf Picks for the Houston Open

Wyndham Clark (+6600) 

Clark began the season with a top-20 at the Amex before completely imploding. Over his last six events, he finished inside the top-40 once. 

Don’t let the finishing positions drive your perception, though. Over that span, Clark recorded strong underlying metrics. 

In his last four starts, he spiked to +0.9 SG: APP per round three times. That sample includes +1.12 at Pebble Beach and +1.04 last week at the Valspar. 

A core issue? Clark can’t putt. He’s lost strokes putting in four straight starts and ranks 121st in SG: Putting over the last 30 rounds. 

However, putting generally proves the most volatile week over week. Clark also gained strokes putting in all five starts at Memorial Park. 

A T-5th last year marked his best finish at this track, which rewards big hitters off the tee. Over the last nine months, Clark ranks 17th and 19th, respectively, in driving distance and ball speed. 

If the putting takes a step forward and the ball-striking record continues, Clark likely contends at a higher rate than his 1.5% win equity suggests. 

Michael Thorbjornsen (+4000)

It was only two weeks ago that Thorbjornsen found himself in the final pairing at the Players Championship. 

His hopes faded with a quadruple bogey at No. 4 that eventually culminated in a Sunday 77. But he showed spike potential that week that should translate to Memorial Park. 

In rounds two and three, Thorbjornsen spiked to +1.8 and +3.2 SG: APP. He made only three bogeys in those rounds and played the Par 5s to -6. 

Before the Florida swing, Thorbjornsen produced a couple of other strong finishes. He finished T-3rd at the WM Phoenix Open after a T-18th at the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Further bolstering Thorbjornsen’s profile at Memorial Park are his long iron record and mistake avoidance. 

He ranks 15th in proximity gained from 200+ yards and 23rd in bogey avoidance this calendar year. Additionally, he ranks 19th in SG: ARG, a key stat at Memorial Park. 

Add in his penchant for strong Poa Trivialis putting – +0.24/round at Sawgrass, +0.36/round at Scottsdale – and I like the price on Thorbjornsen earning his maiden victory. 

Adam Scott (+4000)

Scott notched a pair of top-20 finishes at Riviera and Bay Hill before a T-56th at TPC Sawgrass. 

However, his main issue at the Players came off the tee. Scott lost a stroke per round, his worst performance since the 2025 Open Championship. 

But the iron play remains elite. Scott ranks third in SG: APP this season and has yet to lose strokes with his irons in six 2026 events. 

Even at age 45, Scott ranks 13th in ball speed for the field along with 28th in driving distance. He also ranks 12th in bogey avoidance and 13th in proximity from 200+ this year. 

The question with Scott is if his putter cooperates at a track that requires spike putting. In good news, he gained strokes putting in two of his previous three events. 

Additionally, he ranks 40th in SG: Putting on Poa Trivialis greens since the start of last year. 

If the course plays more difficult than last year, that stat becomes less important. In that situation, Scott can lean on his irons and bogey avoidance record to contend. 

At sixth in my model vs. 13th on the odds board, I like Scott’s profile in Texas.

Keith Mitchell Top-20 + Ties (+200)

Mitchell has finished inside this range only twice this season. However, his underlying metrics suggest improvement could arrive in Houston. 

I don’t view it as a coincidence Mitchell produced his best SG: APP output at a longer course. Earlier this season, he finished T-11th at the Farmers, gaining over two strokes APP per round. 

Mitchell ranks 21st in that category for the season, while ranking ninth in driving distance within this field. Plus, he sits 24th in Par 5 birdie or better rate in 2026. 

Further encouraging is his Par 5 record for his last start at the Players. Mitchell ultimately finished -7 on the Par 5s, but a double on 11 in his final round skewed the record. 

If not for that double, Mitchell would have finished a shot behind runner-up Matt Fitzpatrick’s Par 5 output. 

Without many trouble areas, Mitchell’s length should allow him to excel at a familiar course. 

Last year, he finished T-18th at Memorial Park. That placement marks one of three top-20 finishes in six starts at this track. 

All told, Mitchell ranks 13th in my mixed condition model for the Houston Open. Given that output, I like him at 33.3% implied probability to finish inside the top-20. 

Houston Open Consensus Picks: Public Betting Data

Most Bet First Round Leader (Tickets)

• Alejandro Tosti +12500
• Sudarshan Yellamaraju +8000
• Chris Gotterup +2800
• Stephan Jaeger +6600
• Ryan Gerard +5000

Most Bet to Finish Top 5 (Tickets)

• Brooks Koepka +400
• Chris Gotterup +350
• Marco Penge +600
• Nicolai Hojgaard +550
• Min Woo Lee +240

Most Bet to Finish Top 10 (Tickets)

• Brooks Koepka +200
• Jake Knapp +200
• Michael Thorbjornsen +300
• Nicolai Hojgaard +275
• Sudarshan Yellamaraju +550

Most Bet to Finish Top 20 (Tickets)

• Brooks Koepka +120
• Nicolai Hojgaard +138
• Marco Penge +140
• Jake Knapp +100
• Tony Finau +210