RBC Canadian Open Predictions & Picks: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

It’s amazing how much of a difference one year can make.

At last season’s edition of the RBC Canadian Open – the first one contested on the North Course of TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, a 7,389-yard par-70 – Cameron Young entered as the 66th-ranked player in the world, still huffing and puffing over the fact that he’d yet to win a PGA Tour title, despite so many close calls.

In fact, no anecdote better exemplifies his prior attitude than what happened on the 18th hole in Sunday’s final round.

Needing birdie at the par-5 to reach a playoff, Young flew the green, got a bad lie and failed to get up and down, eventually finishing in a share of fourth place, while Ryan Fox wound up winning in extra holes.

Young looked defeated even before he was officially defeated, which is a far cry from the quiet confidence he’s shown throughout this year. While he isn’t making the trip to the Great White North this week, there’s a lesson in there somewhere, as he’s now the third-ranked player in the world who’s won three times.

There are plenty of guys in this field who would like to use this one as a similar stepping stone, including my first outright selection – a guy who’s already reached the heights of this game, but is still trying to make his way back.

RBC Canadian Open Outright Winner Prediction

Conservative Pick: Brooks Koepka (+2500)

Perhaps the best golf betting advice I’ve ever received came from a former PGA Tour player who’d never actually bet on the sport himself, but offered this wisdom: “If there’s a guy you like and he doesn’t win, you should just keep betting him, because there was probably a reason you liked him in the first place.”

Too often, bettors take it personally when a player doesn’t cash for them. We’ve all experienced it. Do the research, find some value, play a guy for an outright – only to watch him miss the cut. The common refrain is subsequently something to the effect of, “Well, he burned me, so I’m done betting him.” And then, of course, when he does win, we curse him for not winning when he picked him.

All of this leads me to Koepka, who undoubtedly tops my personal list of outright tickets this season. I still see a ton of value in his price, and his ball-striking has been terrific, even if his putter hasn’t cooperated. And yet, I almost went elsewhere with this selection, only because I’ve over-selected him already – until I remembered that advice. I thought about Shane Lowry in this spot, but it’s not as if he’s come any closer to winning than Koepka, save for the Cognizant Classic debacle.

Nicolai Hojgaard or Michael Thorbjornsen? Sorry, but I can’t justify betting a zero-time PGA Tour winner at a similar number to a five-time major champion.

In 10 starts this season in individual events, Koepka owns six top-20s, has gained strokes off the tee seven times (and those times he’s lost, it’s been just barely below field average) and with his irons on eight occasions. If he was being priced as a guy who’s won a whole bunch of majors instead of a guy still trying to climb his way into signature events, he might not be as appealing in this market, but I simply can’t get over a known closer at this number when he’s still fully motivated to go get a victory.

Aggressive Picks: Mac Meissner (+6000), Rico Hoey (+6600), Steven Fisk (+10000), Austin Eckroat (+12500)

The top seven on this week’s odds board include Tommy Fleetwood (who’s had, uh, a little trouble closing out PGA Tour events in the past), Sam Burns (see: Fleetwood, Tommy), Collin Morikawa (who just skipped another signature event) and Robert MacIntyre (who doesn’t have a top-40 in his last six starts).

Now, I should mention that it also includes Matt Fitzpatrick, who owns three wins this season, and Wyndham Clark, who’s currently riding a heater. All of that said, I’m doing things a little differently for my aggressive outright this week.

Instead of a single selection, I think there’s some value on this board as many of the best players in the field have an Island of Misfit Toys feel to ‘em, and that doesn’t even account for those looking ahead to next week’s U.S. Open.

Point is, this seems like a good week to take some chances on bigger prices, so I’ve listed four at varying levels of value, hoping to pick off a J.T. Poston-like win. To start, Meissner has been terrific lately, with three top-10s in his last four starts, including a T-3 at Colonial. We’ve seen plenty of unsuspecting options come close this season, then parlay that momentum into continued success and I think Meissner could keep it going north of the border.

Hoey was one of my favorite players entering this season, as it appeared he’d learned how to putt last fall, when he posted six top-25s in seven starts. That subsided in a big way earlier this season, but he’s now gained strokes on the greens in four of his last six starts, which dovetails nicely with his usual strong tee-to-green game.

Fisk might be the most underrated and underappreciated player on the PGA Tour. You might not remember that he won the Sanderson Farms Championship last fall and you probably had no idea that he’s been inside the top-20 in three of his last five. Let’s hope he remains under the radar and keeps this current value.

And then there’s Eckroat, who’s considerably undervalued in the outright market. He hasn’t exactly been a world-beater recently, but he is a two-time PGA Tour winner and he’s gained strokes with his irons in nine of his last 10 starts. I love the idea of taking a chance at this number.

RBC Canadian Open Top-5 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Alex Noren (+700)

Noren is another who nearly made my outright card above instead of Koepka, but again, it’s difficult – if not impossible – to rationalize choosing a player who’s never won on the continent of North America over someone at a similar price who’s done so many times.

There is, however, a lot to like about a guy who’s shown a lofty floor this season, though not a ceiling which perhaps suggests a top-five is coming. His ninth-place finish at the Memorial was his 10th top-35 result in his last 11 starts.

Noren might make more sense as a plus-money top-20 this week, but for a guy who’s been very good in every major category this year, I don’t mind playing for a spike week.

Aggressive Pick: Eric Cole (+800)

I’m not a big fan of the KISS method – you know, Keep It Simple, Stupid – in any walk of life, but especially betting. Too often, the obvious play only makes us look oblivious by week’s end, but I’m willing to buck that trend by playing this trend here.

Cole has been eighth or better in four of his last five starts, so it feels suspiciously like chasing to pick him again, however for a guy who’s hungry to win and loves teeing it up every week, I’ll stick with him.

RBC Canadian Open Top-10 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Shane Lowry (+333)

As mentioned above, I almost listed Lowry as my fave outright, but his win equity has been gross in recent years. More specifically: Since his Open Championship win in the summer of 2019, he has exactly two victories – at the 2022 BMW PGA Championship, when he led Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm by a stroke before the final round was canceled due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II, and at the 2024 Zurich Classic, when McIlroy might’ve done a lot of the heavy lifting for their team.

I still think he’s due for a good performance, though, and at a place where he was T-13 last year, it would make sense that it happens here again this week.

Aggressive Pick: Michael Brennan (+400)

There are a lot of things I look for when trying to pinpoint impending success, but one of my favorite tells is when a player fares well on a course which doesn’t suit his game. There’s little about Colonial CC which should favor the long-hitting Brennan and yet his T-6 a few weeks ago was easily his best result of the season.

We’ll see if he can follow it with another title contention, but all signs point to TPC Toronto being at least slightly more favorable to the rookie’s game.

RBC Canadian Open Top-20 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Jordan Smith (+260)

Kristoffer Reitan and Alex Fitzpatrick have gotten a majority of the pub as the DP World Tour’s most successful exports this season – and for good reason – but Smith has been quietly solid throughout this entire campaign.

He’s a ball-striking machine from tee to green who too frequently struggles with the flatstick, and there are some definitive poor man’s Tommy Fleetwood tendencies here, including a lengthy and fruitful career on the Euro circuit which saw him win just twice.

As such, I don’t think he owns anywhere near the ceiling of a guy like Reitan on a regular basis, but I love his floor, especially at this price for a top-20.

Aggressive Pick: A.J. Ewart (+400)

Three years ago, I correctly listed Nick Taylor as one of my outright plays for this tournament, which I only mention because it was preceded by probably a decade-and-a-half of other Canadian selections which continually disappointed. There’s rarely been a year when I haven’t touted Corey Conners or Adam Hadwin or Mackenzie Hughes or Taylor Pendrith at their national open, and while Sudarshan Yellamaraju offers another possibility,

I’m instead going here with a fellow rookie in Ewart. He’s cashed top-20 tickets in three of his last four starts while proving himself as a top-10 putter on the PGA Tour. If you believe that makes him a candidate to match Taylor’s home country triumph, he’s not a terrible option at a big triple-digit price in that market, but I’ll play it more reasonably for yet another top-20 finish.

RBC Canadian Open Top-40 Prediction

Conservative Pick: Doug Ghim (market not yet available)

Look, if I’m going to list Koepka, Hoey, Brennan and Smith in this preview, I might as well keep the no-putter theme going and add Ghim to the mix, too. We know what we’re getting here and it’s a familiar refrain – solid tee-to-green play and a flatstick which rarely cooperates, as he’s lost strokes with it in seven of his last eight measured events.

That said, he’s overcome this deficiency to post top-40s in each of his last five starts and seven of his last eight. At some point, the putter is going to heat up to even just a lukewarm temperature and we’ll see his name on the first page of a leaderboard.

Aggressive Pick: Tom Kim (market not yet available)

You may be excused for thinking this former phenom is now just a full-time TGLer, as the indoor league is where he’s gotten the most attention over the past couple of years. The truth is, Kim’s iron play has actually been very good recently and while I don’t necessarily trust him just yet for anything more than a conservative floor play, there are signs he’s going to once again be an outdoor golfer we’re talking about, as well.

RBC Canadian Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Picks: Sahith Theegala (+5500) and Austin Smotherman (+9000)

I’ve hit three FRLs in my weekly previews this season, which – as I’ve stated previously – should fill my quota for the rest of the decade. Two of those plays were Theegala (who grabbed part of a five-way share at The Players) and Smotherman (who led at the Cognizant), so while this might not be a walk down Narrative Street, it’s at least a saunter down Memory Lane.

I continue to believe that Theegala is close to some serious title contentions, but I’ll back off that idea for a single-round investment this week, and Smotherman is a guy who can pile up birdies in bunches, making him a strong FRL bet.