- The WM Phoenix Open is Feb. 6-9 from TPC Scottsdale.
- Justin Thomas is a potential outright winner pick.
- Why Jordan Spieth may have some value this week.
While the WM Phoenix Open isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, it is still a big week on the PGA Tour.
The annual stop at TPC Scottsdale during Super Bowl week is known for its rowdy fans, especially on the par-3 16th hole.
The tournament is also known for strong finishes, as it has gone to a playoff in six of the last nine years, including a year ago when Nick Taylor beat Charley Hoffman.
As of Tuesday morning, Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +275.
TPC Scottsdale tests all facets of players’ games, so this is not a week where a player can rely on one particular thing. Water comes into play on several holes, and there are also a number of risk-reward holes.
When it comes to golf betting this week, I will be focusing on players who have a good course history at TPC Scottsdale, as well as rank well in Strokes Gained: Approach, Par-4 Scoring, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling Gained, Good Drives Gained and Strokes Gained: Putting.
WM Phoenix Open Prediction
Scottie Scheffler is expected to win the WM Phoenix Open with a 26.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Justin Thomas is next at 6.67%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
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WM Phoenix Open Best Bets
Justin Thomas Outright Winner (+1400)
I am going back to the Thomas Well this week following a disappointing T-48 finish at Pebble Beach.
Thomas has had a ton of success at TPC Scottsdale, which includes four top-10 finishes and seven top 25s. In fact, his worst finish in his last seven starts here is a T-17. Before last week, Thomas was in good form, with three top-5 finishes in his last five starts worldwide.
Generally, the winner of this event is a player who putts extremely well, and even though he lost strokes putting at Pebble Beach, he gained strokes in his start prior to that at The American Express. Those putting surfaces are the same as he will putt on this week at TPC Scottsdale.
Thomas is going to win this year on the PGA Tour, it’s just a matter of time.
Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 Finish (+150)
Matsuyama has some of the best course history at this event, including winning in back-to-back years – 2016 and 2017. On top of those, he has four other top-25 finishes.
Following a poor showing at Pebble Beach (T-48), there is good value to be had on Matsuyuma this week.
Jordan Spieth Top-20 Finish (+260)
Yes, Spieth finished T-69 in his return following wrist surgery last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but there were signs of progress, including a final round 67.
Spieth always seems to play well at this event, even when he’s struggling overall. He’s finished T-6 each of the last two years and added a T-4 in 2021.
Once Spieth shows he’s healthy again, there won’t be a price like this on him for a top-20 finish the rest of the year. I am taking advantage of this now.
