Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Two current Premier League title threats will meet on Tuesday as Arsenal hosts Aston Villa. 

Arsenal used two first-half goals to beat Brighton 2-1 over the weekend. The win gave Arsenal the league lead by two points over chasers Manchester City. 

Villa came from behind yet again to win 2-1 over Chelsea on Saturday. That win marks Villa’s fifth this season from a trailing position as Unai Emery’s side sits third in the table. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction. 

Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Premier League Odds

Aston Villa vs Arsenal: Prediction

Based on Villa’s wildly misleading record this season and Arsenal’s record from winning positions, my Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction is the Arsenal Goal Line (-1.5, +125). 

The line should tell you everything about this game. How is Arsenal (1st) a 1.5-goal favorite over Villa (3rd)? 

It’s because Villa are a complete luckbox that has a ton of negative regression coming in the second half of the season. 

Entering this match, Arsenal owns a +1.13 expected goal differential per 90. Villa, meanwhile, posted a -0.31 xGDiff per 90, the sixth-worst mark in the league. 

Previous performances indicate Villa are going to go behind on the road. Only once all season has Villa opened the scoring on the road. That came against a 10-man Sunderland side. 

Arsenal has opened the scoring in all but one home match. The lone failure came against Manchester City, which leads the EPL in expected goals. Villa, meanwhile, sit 15th. 

This season, Villa posted strong metrics from a deficit. Per understat.com, Emery’s team owns a +3.56 expected goal differential at a -1 game state. 

The problem? Arsenal owns a +9.88 differential from a +1 game state. Arsenal has taken the lead 14 times this season and won 13 of those matches. 

Villa took the lead at home against Arsenal. However, it came with Mikel Arteta shorthanded in defense. 

Presumably, the elite central defense pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel will start on Tuesday. That should get Arsenal back to the defensive structure that leads the EPL in post-shot xGA. 

In conjunction, Villa should experience some negative attacking regression. This season, Villa has scored 5.3 goals over its post-shot expectation. 

If all of those factors come together, I predict Villa gets blown out and sees its 11-match winning streak end on Tuesday.