Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

A pair of EPL teams off a loss meet Tuesday in London as Chelsea hosts Bournemouth. 

Chelsea took a 1-0 lead at home against Aston Villa. However, a poor defensive second half saw Chelsea fall 2-1, ending a three-match unbeaten run for the Blues. 

Bournemouth suffered an embarrassing 4-1 defeat at Brentford on Saturday. Not since October 26 has Andoni Iraola’s side taken all three points from a match. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction. 

Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Premier League Odds

Bournemouth vs Chelsea: Prediction

Based on Chelsea’s potential positive regression at home and Bournemouth’s weak road record, my Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-165). 

It’s a lot of juice to lay, but Bournemouth are the side to make that prediction against. 

Andoni Iraola’s side enters Tuesday’s match – a back-to-back road spot – riding a nine-match winless run (D4-L5). 

Away from home, the Cherries have claimed only one win (Tottenham) with four losses over the last five. Most concerning: the defense has conceded at least three goals in six straight away matches. 

By expected goals, Bournemouth owns the worst road defense in the league at 20.6 xGA, per fbref.com. 

Now the visitors get a Chelsea side that has underperformed at home. Entering Tuesday’s match, Enzo Maresca’s side owns a +4 home differential vs. a +5.6 xGDiff. 

Against Villa, Chelsea lost 2-1 despite creating 2.1 expected goals. Additionally, Chelsea leads the EPL in post-shot xG, but has finished 3.2 goals under expected thanks to opposing keepers. 

So far this season, Chelsea’s closest home comparison to Bournemouth is Everton (-0.51 xGDiff on the road, Bournemouth = -0.73). 

Chelsea won that match 2-0 with a +1.2 expected goal differential. 

Pair that data with Chelsea’s back-to-back home spot, and I predict the hosts take all three points on Tuesday.