Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

Premier League leaders Arsenal will close out Matchday 20 at home against title holders Liverpool. 

For Arsenal, the match offers a chance to extend its positive record at home. Mikel Arteta’s side has captured nine wins and a draw in its first 10 home league matches. 

They’ll try for a 10th win against Liverpool, which won 1-0 in the reverse fixture. The Reds have struggled away from home, though, going 4-1-4 (W-D-L) in their first nine. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction. 

Arsenal vs Liverpool: Premier League Odds

Liverpool vs Arsenal: Prediction

Based on Liverpool’s defensive performance against Man City and Arsenal’s defensive structure against good attacks, my Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+100). 

Evaluating this match presents a challenge. The reverse fixture finished 1-0 with the teams combining for one total expected goal. 

However, Arsenal operated without both Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard. Saka leads all Arsenal plays with 8.8 non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists. 

The return of those players should help against an unknown Liverpool defense. Metrics suggest Liverpool offers decent resistance, but they’ve also benefitted from five opponent red cards. 

At the same time, Liverpool showed well against Man City away from home. 

Although City – the closest comparison to Arsenal’s attack – scored three times, metrics suggest it was lucky. In that match, Liverpool allowed three goals off 1.5 expected. 

Outside of a penalty kick, City managed zero chances better than 0.2 xG and one chance rated higher than 0.3 xG. 

Meanwhile, I remain optimistic about Arsenal’s defense. Liverpool generated only 0.5 xG at home with their lone shot on target coming in the 83rd minute. 

Liverpool has also outperformed its post-shot xG total by two goals through 19 matches. Only three teams have experienced greater fortune in the first half. 

That regression could arrive against an Arsenal defense that has allowed only 11 post-shot expected goals in its first 19 matches. 

At home, Arteta’s side has allowed only 6.2 xGA, the second-best mark in the league. Given those factors, I predict a low-scoring contest on Thursday.