Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Douglas Luiz, centre, celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest at the Villa Park stadium in Birmingham, England, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 08, 2024, 3:53 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
  • Hosts Villa earned a win over Spurs in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Villa matches a pair of historically profitable betting systems.

Before Sunday’s English Premier League match at Villa Park, I’m here to provide an Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction. 

Both teams enter this game in good form – Villa captured a 3-2 road win over Luton Town last weekend, while Spurs came from behind to win 3-1 against Crystal Palace. 

In the previous head-to-head meeting between these sides, Villa earned a 2-1 win, their third straight win over Tottenham. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my betting prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Tottenham

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +135
  • Tottenham Moneyline: +160
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Tottenham

Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-135)

It’s not the best spot for Aston Villa – they face a Thursday trip to Ajax Amsterdam – but history says they do no worse than a draw. 

I make that assessment because of two historically profitable systems. One says to bet Villa, while the other suggests a fade of Tottenham. 

Beginning with the former, history says short home favorites that won the previous meeting tend to do well. 

Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites between a PK and -1 with a win percentage north of 45% that won by between one and two goals in the previous meeting are 69.2% ATS. 

Shrink the sample down to this season and the previous campaign and bettors will find those home teams are 26-8 ATS. 

As for the latter system, road dogs rarely earn outright wins after a win as home favorites. The kicker? They need to have lost the previous game. 

Since the 2021-22 season, road dogs off an outright win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 9-54 SU against the three-way moneyline. 

When their opponent is off a win? 1-22 SU. 

Just this season, those teams have captured only one outright win in 17 tries, including 0-5 with their opponent off a win. 

Plus, Villa have one of the best home records in the Premier League under manager Unai Emery. 

Since appointing the former Arsenal boss, Villa is 17-7 ATS as home favorites and own a +0.96 expected goal differential per 90 at home this season. 

Comparatively, Tottenham own a -0.22 xGDiff per 90 away from home this season and have won only five of 12 matches. 

As a result, I’ll take Villa to do no worse than a point at home, even on short rest. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W

Feb. 17 at Fulham: 2-1, W

Feb. 11 vs. Manchester United: 1-2, L

Feb. 7 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L (FA Cup)

Tottenham Form

March 2 vs. Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L

Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D

Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.