- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Both teams earned wins on the last matchday, but Liverpool dominated Brentford at home.
- Hosts Brentford match a number of historically profitable betting systems.
Before Saturday’s early Premier League kickoff from London, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction.
Both teams enter Saturday’s match earning all three points in their last match.
Liverpool picked up a 3-1 home win over Burnley, while Brentford won 2-0 at Wolves.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brentford
- Liverpool Moneyline: -165
- Brentford Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +340
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brentford
Brentford Spread (+0.5, +130) vs. Liverpool | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115)
This is the “build your courage” bet of this week’s Premier League slate.
Brentford are historically profitable as home underdogs – they’re 10-6-1 ATS since earning promotion – but they’re 0-3 ATS in that spot this season.
However, talisman Ivan Toney featured in only one of those three matches, so it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression with him in the lineup.
From there, Brentford matches four historically profitable betting systems. Here’s a breakdown:
- Since 2017-18, home dogs off a road win with their opponent off a win are 59.4% ATS.
- Since 2014-15, dogs off a win as dogs are 56% ATS in their next game.
- Since 2017-18, home dogs off either a win or draw as underdogs are 57% ATS.
- Since 2017-18, home dogs that lost by at least two goals in their previous head-to-head meeting are 57.8% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage over 35%.
Further, Brentford has experienced some bad luck at home this season.
Entering Saturday’s fixture, manager Thomas Frank’s side has a -3 home goal differential compared to a -0.32 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.
As a result, I’ll take Brentford to earn their first result as home underdogs this season at +125 or better.
However, I’ll hedge slightly by taking the over – if Brentford doesn’t win or draw, it’s likely because their defense crumbles.
This season, overs have proved especially profitable in matches featuring home underdogs.
To date, the over has cashed at a 61% clip in qualifying matches.
Shrink the sample down to games where the home team allows at least 1.7 goals per game, and the over is 64%, including 12 straight wins for the over.
Brentford were unlucky not to score at Anfield – they created 1.04 post-shot xG – but they just allowed 4.33 psxG to Man City last weekend at home.
As a result, expect a high-flying affair Saturday in London. Bet the over at +110 or better.
Liverpool Form
Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W
Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L
Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea: 4-1, W
Jan. 28 vs. Norwich City: 5-2, W (FA Cup)
Jan. 24 at Fulham: 1-1, D (EFL Cup)
Brentford Form
Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W
Feb. 5 vs. Man City: 1-3, L
Jan. 31 at Tottenham: 2-3, L
Jan. 20 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
Jan. 16 at Wolves: 2-3, L (FA Cup)
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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