Liverpool vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 14, 2024, 10:48 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Both teams earned wins on the last matchday, but Liverpool dominated Brentford at home.
  • Hosts Brentford match a number of historically profitable betting systems.

Before Saturday’s early Premier League kickoff from London, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction. 

Both teams enter Saturday’s match earning all three points in their last match. 

Liverpool picked up a 3-1 home win over Burnley, while Brentford won 2-0 at Wolves. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brentford

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -165
  • Brentford Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +340
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brentford

Brentford Spread (+0.5, +130) vs. Liverpool | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115)

This is the “build your courage” bet of this week’s Premier League slate. 

Brentford are historically profitable as home underdogs – they’re 10-6-1 ATS since earning promotion – but they’re 0-3 ATS in that spot this season. 

However, talisman Ivan Toney featured in only one of those three matches, so it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression with him in the lineup. 

From there, Brentford matches four historically profitable betting systems. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Since 2017-18, home dogs off a road win with their opponent off a win are 59.4% ATS.
  • Since 2014-15, dogs off a win as dogs are 56% ATS in their next game.
  • Since 2017-18, home dogs off either a win or draw as underdogs are 57% ATS.
  • Since 2017-18, home dogs that lost by at least two goals in their previous head-to-head meeting are 57.8% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage over 35%. 

Further, Brentford has experienced some bad luck at home this season. 

Entering Saturday’s fixture, manager Thomas Frank’s side has a -3 home goal differential compared to a -0.32 non-penalty psxG, per 

As a result, I’ll take Brentford to earn their first result as home underdogs this season at +125 or better.

However, I’ll hedge slightly by taking the over – if Brentford doesn’t win or draw, it’s likely because their defense crumbles. 

This season, overs have proved especially profitable in matches featuring home underdogs. 

To date, the over has cashed at a 61% clip in qualifying matches. 

Shrink the sample down to games where the home team allows at least 1.7 goals per game, and the over is 64%, including 12 straight wins for the over. 

Brentford were unlucky not to score at Anfield – they created 1.04 post-shot xG – but they just allowed 4.33 psxG to Man City last weekend at home. 

As a result, expect a high-flying affair Saturday in London. Bet the over at +110 or better. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea: 4-1, W

Jan. 28 vs. Norwich City: 5-2, W (FA Cup)

Jan. 24 at Fulham: 1-1, D (EFL Cup)

Brentford Form

Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W

Feb. 5 vs. Man City: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 at Tottenham: 2-3, L

Jan. 20 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

Jan. 16 at Wolves: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC22-5-47151---
Liverpool FC21-8-27142---
Manchester City21-7-37040---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-76020---
Aston Villa FC18-6-86017---
Manchester United15-4-1249-1---
West Ham United13-9-1048-4---
Newcastle United14-5-124713---
Chelsea FC12-8-10443---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-10-10432---
Fulham FC11-6-1539-4---
Crystal Palace7-9-1530-18---
Everton9-8-1427-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-8-1725-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-1925-20---
Burnley FC4-7-2119-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2116-52---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-15-1.5008-7.5337-8-1.469
Crystal Palace14-17.4526-9.4008-8.500
Luton Town21-10-1.67212-4.7509-6-1.594
Manchester City13-18.4196-10.3757-8.467
Manchester United12-19.3876-9.4006-10.375
Newcastle United15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-16-2.4695-10-1.3449-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
Tottenham Hotspur18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
West Ham United17-15.53110-6.6257-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-14-1.5328-7.5338-7-1.531

EPL Betting at BetMGM

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.