Liverpool vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 14, 2024, 10:48 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Both teams earned wins on the last matchday, but Liverpool dominated Brentford at home.
  • Hosts Brentford match a number of historically profitable betting systems.

Before Saturday’s early Premier League kickoff from London, I’m here to provide a Liverpool vs. Brentford prediction. 

Both teams enter Saturday’s match earning all three points in their last match. 

Liverpool picked up a 3-1 home win over Burnley, while Brentford won 2-0 at Wolves. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Brentford

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -165
  • Brentford Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +340
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Brentford

Brentford Spread (+0.5, +130) vs. Liverpool | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+115)

This is the “build your courage” bet of this week’s Premier League slate. 

Brentford are historically profitable as home underdogs – they’re 10-6-1 ATS since earning promotion – but they’re 0-3 ATS in that spot this season. 

However, talisman Ivan Toney featured in only one of those three matches, so it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression with him in the lineup. 

From there, Brentford matches four historically profitable betting systems. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Since 2017-18, home dogs off a road win with their opponent off a win are 59.4% ATS.
  • Since 2014-15, dogs off a win as dogs are 56% ATS in their next game.
  • Since 2017-18, home dogs off either a win or draw as underdogs are 57% ATS.
  • Since 2017-18, home dogs that lost by at least two goals in their previous head-to-head meeting are 57.8% ATS, assuming the opponent has a win percentage over 35%. 

Further, Brentford has experienced some bad luck at home this season. 

Entering Saturday’s fixture, manager Thomas Frank’s side has a -3 home goal differential compared to a -0.32 non-penalty psxG, per 

As a result, I’ll take Brentford to earn their first result as home underdogs this season at +125 or better.

However, I’ll hedge slightly by taking the over – if Brentford doesn’t win or draw, it’s likely because their defense crumbles. 

This season, overs have proved especially profitable in matches featuring home underdogs. 

To date, the over has cashed at a 61% clip in qualifying matches. 

Shrink the sample down to games where the home team allows at least 1.7 goals per game, and the over is 64%, including 12 straight wins for the over. 

Brentford were unlucky not to score at Anfield – they created 1.04 post-shot xG – but they just allowed 4.33 psxG to Man City last weekend at home. 

As a result, expect a high-flying affair Saturday in London. Bet the over at +110 or better. 

Liverpool Form 

Feb. 10 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Feb. 4 at Arsenal: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 vs. Chelsea: 4-1, W

Jan. 28 vs. Norwich City: 5-2, W (FA Cup)

Jan. 24 at Fulham: 1-1, D (EFL Cup)

Brentford Form

Feb. 10 at Wolves: 2-0, W

Feb. 5 vs. Man City: 1-3, L

Jan. 31 at Tottenham: 2-3, L

Jan. 20 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W

Jan. 16 at Wolves: 2-3, L (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.