Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, right, gives instructions to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne during the English FA Cup third round soccer match between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town, at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 14, 2024, 4:15 PM
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
  • Chelsea earned a point vs. City at Stamford Bridge and enter this game off a road win.
  • Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s fixture.

Before two of England’s most decorated clubs meet on Saturday, I’m here to provide a Man City vs. Chelsea prediction. 

In terms of their domestic form, both teams arrive fresh off wins. 

City captured a 2-0 win over Everton last weekend and followed it with a 3-1 road win in the Champions League on Tuesday. 

As for Chelsea, they came from behind to capture a 3-1 road win over Crystal Palace on Monday. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Chelsea

  • Man City Moneyline: -275
  • Chelsea Moneyline: +700
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-160)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Chelsea

Same Game Parlay: Man City Moneyline & Man City Each Half Over 0.5 (-105)

I really worry about this Chelsea defense as they prepare to face one of the Premier League’s top attacks. 

Although they’re coming off a road win against Crystal Palace in which they surrendered only 0.46 post shot expected goals, that’s an outlying performance. 

In their previous road match against Liverpool, Chelsea surrendered at least one post-shot xG in both halves while allowing Liverpool to create 3.73 total psxG, per 

Sample the six fixtures preceding the Palace match and bettors will find Chelsea surrendered 14.55 non-penalty post shot expected goals. 

In those games, they allowed four teams to surpass two non-penalty psxG’s and all six to surpass 1.6. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against Man City, who notched 2.54 non-penalty psxG’s in the reverse fixture against Stamford Bridge. 

From there, we move on to the Manchester City moneyline. 

This is equal parts a play on City as it is a fade of Chelsea, who is 1-2 SU as a road underdog this season. 

The lone win? At Tottenham in a match where Spurs saw two players sent off before the halftime whistle. 

Finally, EPL home favorites playing two straight home matches are 64% straight up since the beginning of last season. 

Back this parlay at -115 or better come Saturday. 

Man City Form 

Feb. 13 at FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (UEFA Champions League)

Feb. 10 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

Feb. 5 at Brentford: 3-1, W

Jan. 31 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Jan. 26 at Tottenham: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Chelsea Form

Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Feb. 7 at Aston Villa: 3-1, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 0-0, D (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.