Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, right, gives instructions to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne during the English FA Cup third round soccer match between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town, at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 14, 2024, 4:15 PM
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
  • Chelsea earned a point vs. City at Stamford Bridge and enter this game off a road win.
  • Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s fixture.

Before two of England’s most decorated clubs meet on Saturday, I’m here to provide a Man City vs. Chelsea prediction. 

In terms of their domestic form, both teams arrive fresh off wins. 

City captured a 2-0 win over Everton last weekend and followed it with a 3-1 road win in the Champions League on Tuesday. 

As for Chelsea, they came from behind to capture a 3-1 road win over Crystal Palace on Monday. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Chelsea

  • Man City Moneyline: -275
  • Chelsea Moneyline: +700
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-160)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Chelsea

Same Game Parlay: Man City Moneyline & Man City Each Half Over 0.5 (-105)

I really worry about this Chelsea defense as they prepare to face one of the Premier League’s top attacks. 

Although they’re coming off a road win against Crystal Palace in which they surrendered only 0.46 post shot expected goals, that’s an outlying performance. 

In their previous road match against Liverpool, Chelsea surrendered at least one post-shot xG in both halves while allowing Liverpool to create 3.73 total psxG, per fotmob.com. 

Sample the six fixtures preceding the Palace match and bettors will find Chelsea surrendered 14.55 non-penalty post shot expected goals. 

In those games, they allowed four teams to surpass two non-penalty psxG’s and all six to surpass 1.6. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against Man City, who notched 2.54 non-penalty psxG’s in the reverse fixture against Stamford Bridge. 

From there, we move on to the Manchester City moneyline. 

This is equal parts a play on City as it is a fade of Chelsea, who is 1-2 SU as a road underdog this season. 

The lone win? At Tottenham in a match where Spurs saw two players sent off before the halftime whistle. 

Finally, EPL home favorites playing two straight home matches are 64% straight up since the beginning of last season. 

Back this parlay at -115 or better come Saturday. 

Man City Form 

Feb. 13 at FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (UEFA Champions League)

Feb. 10 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

Feb. 5 at Brentford: 3-1, W

Jan. 31 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Jan. 26 at Tottenham: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Chelsea Form

Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Feb. 7 at Aston Villa: 3-1, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 0-0, D (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

EPL Betting at BetMGM

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.