Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, right, gives instructions to Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne during the English FA Cup third round soccer match between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town, at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
  • Chelsea earned a point vs. City at Stamford Bridge and enter this game off a road win.
  • Bet this Same Game Parlay for Saturdayโ€™s fixture.

Before two of Englandโ€™s most decorated clubs meet on Saturday, Iโ€™m here to provide a Man City vs. Chelsea prediction.ย 

In terms of their domestic form, both teams arrive fresh off wins.ย 

City captured a 2-0 win over Everton last weekend and followed it with a 3-1 road win in the Champions League on Tuesday.ย 

As for Chelsea, they came from behind to capture a 3-1 road win over Crystal Palace on Monday.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturdayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Chelsea

  • Man City Moneyline: -275
  • Chelsea Moneyline: +700
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-160)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Chelsea

Same Game Parlay: Man City Moneyline & Man City Each Half Over 0.5 (-105)

I really worry about this Chelsea defense as they prepare to face one of the Premier Leagueโ€™s top attacks.ย 

Although theyโ€™re coming off a road win against Crystal Palace in which they surrendered only 0.46 post shot expected goals, thatโ€™s an outlying performance.ย 

In their previous road match against Liverpool, Chelsea surrendered at least one post-shot xG in both halves while allowing Liverpool to create 3.73 total psxG, per fotmob.com.ย 

Sample the six fixtures preceding the Palace match and bettors will find Chelsea surrendered 14.55 non-penalty post shot expected goals.ย 

In those games, they allowed four teams to surpass two non-penalty psxGโ€™s and all six to surpass 1.6.ย 

Thatโ€™s going to put them in trouble against Man City, who notched 2.54 non-penalty psxGโ€™s in the reverse fixture against Stamford Bridge.ย 

From there, we move on to the Manchester City moneyline.ย 

This is equal parts a play on City as it is a fade of Chelsea, who is 1-2 SU as a road underdog this season.ย 

The lone win? At Tottenham in a match where Spurs saw two players sent off before the halftime whistle.ย 

Finally, EPL home favorites playing two straight home matches are 64% straight up since the beginning of last season.ย 

Back this parlay at -115 or better come Saturday.ย 

Man City Formย 

Feb. 13 at FC Copenhagen: 3-1, W (UEFA Champions League)

Feb. 10 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

Feb. 5 at Brentford: 3-1, W

Jan. 31 vs. Burnley: 3-1, W

Jan. 26 at Tottenham: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Chelsea Form

Feb. 12 at Crystal Palace: 3-1, W

Feb. 7 at Aston Villa: 3-1, W (FA Cup)

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 0-0, D (FA Cup)

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.