- Brighton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- The Seagulls drew 1-1 in previous head-to-head, but bossed the underlying metrics.
- This system suggests one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.
Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Turf Moor, I’m here to offer a Brighton vs. Burnley prediction.
Both teams enter this game searching for a positive result. Brighton lost 3-0 as home underdogs to Arsenal the previous weekend, while Burnley lost 1-0 as road dogs to Everton.
In the previous head-to-head meeting between these sides, Burnley earned a road point largely because of their goalkeeper James Trafford making save after save.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Brighton vs. Burnley
- Brighton Moneyline: -105
- Burnley Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+125)
EPL Prediction – Brighton vs. Burnley
Brighton Moneyline (-105, Bet at +110 or better)
Although Brighton didn’t earn a win against Burnley at home, the metrics suggest they should have.
Manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side won the expected goals battle 2.8 to 0.6 and put 11 shots on target to Burnley’s three.
The post shot expected goals battle proved even more glaring as Brighton scored a solitary goal off four post shot expected goals, per fotmob.com, without a penalty kick.
In terms of the psxGDiff, Brighton finished with a +2.9 differential for that match vs. a +0 actual differential for the game.
Although the Seagulls enter this game with some injury concerns, I like them to bounce back from a bad defeat against Arsenal.
Under de Zerbi, Brighton is 13-6 SU in games immediately following a defeat. When they lost by two or more goals in the previous game, they’re 8-3 SU in the subsequent fixture.
Additionally, short favorites tend to excel in the Premier League following an embarrassing defeat.
Since the 2012-13 Premier League season, favorites sitting between +110 and -230 that lost their previous game by at least three goals are 86-45 SU.
Those teams are also 62-35 SU when they closed as an underdog in their previous game and a whopping 28-9 SU when their opponent has a winning percentage under 15%.
Plus, I’ll place my trust in this Brighton attack which has experienced loads of bad luck this season.
This season, Brighton have underperformed their post shot expected goal tally by 7.2 goals, the highest in the Premier League.
Add in their strong defensive play – the Seagulls sit fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 – and I expect Brighton will capture all three points on the road Saturday.
Brighton Form
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L
March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W
Burnley Form
April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D
March 16 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W
March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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