Brighton vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 10, 2024, 3:16 PM
  • Brighton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • The Seagulls drew 1-1 in previous head-to-head, but bossed the underlying metrics.
  • This system suggests one side is undervalued for Saturday’s fixture.

Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Turf Moor, I’m here to offer a Brighton vs. Burnley prediction. 

Both teams enter this game searching for a positive result. Brighton lost 3-0 as home underdogs to Arsenal the previous weekend, while Burnley lost 1-0 as road dogs to Everton. 

In the previous head-to-head meeting between these sides, Burnley earned a road point largely because of their goalkeeper James Trafford making save after save. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brighton vs. Burnley

  • Brighton Moneyline: -105
  • Burnley Moneyline: +260
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-175/+125)

EPL Prediction – Brighton vs. Burnley

Brighton Moneyline (-105, Bet at +110 or better)

Although Brighton didn’t earn a win against Burnley at home, the metrics suggest they should have. 

Manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side won the expected goals battle 2.8 to 0.6 and put 11 shots on target to Burnley’s three. 

The post shot expected goals battle proved even more glaring as Brighton scored a solitary goal off four post shot expected goals, per, without a penalty kick. 

In terms of the psxGDiff, Brighton finished with a +2.9 differential for that match vs. a +0 actual differential for the game. 

Although the Seagulls enter this game with some injury concerns, I like them to bounce back from a bad defeat against Arsenal. 

Under de Zerbi, Brighton is 13-6 SU in games immediately following a defeat. When they lost by two or more goals in the previous game, they’re 8-3 SU in the subsequent fixture. 

Additionally, short favorites tend to excel in the Premier League following an embarrassing defeat. 

Since the 2012-13 Premier League season, favorites sitting between +110 and -230 that lost their previous game by at least three goals are 86-45 SU. 

Those teams are also 62-35 SU when they closed as an underdog in their previous game and a whopping 28-9 SU when their opponent has a winning percentage under 15%. 

Plus, I’ll place my trust in this Brighton attack which has experienced loads of bad luck this season. 

This season, Brighton have underperformed their post shot expected goal tally by 7.2 goals, the highest in the Premier League. 

Add in their strong defensive play – the Seagulls sit fifth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 – and I expect Brighton will capture all three points on the road Saturday. 

Brighton Form 

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

March 31 at Liverpool: 1-2, L

March 14 vs. Roma: 1-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-0, W

Burnley Form

April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L

April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D

March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D

March 16 vs. Brentford: 2-1, W

March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.