Tottenham vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Newcastle's Alexander Isak, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Newcastle, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 09, 2024, 6:18 PM
  • Tottenham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
  • Both teams earned wins last weekend, but Spurs dominated the last H2H.
  • Why bettors should look at the total for Saturday’s fixture.

As Tottenham continue their push for a top-four spot in the Premier League, they travel to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. 

Both teams earned wins in their previous fixture. Newcastle traveled to Fulham as road dogs and won 1-0, while Spurs earned a 3-1 home victory over Nottingham Forest. 

When these sides met in North London, Tottenham earned a 4-1 home win. That marks two straight matches in which the home team has earned all three points. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s early kickoff. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Newcastle United

  • Tottenham Moneyline: +140
  • Newcastle United Moneyline: +160
  • Draw Moneyline: +290
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Newcastle United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-115)

History says this game has a better-than-not chance of clearing 3.5 goals for the third straight meeting. 

Recently, overs have proved particularly profitable in games featuring a home underdog taking on a good offense. 

Since the 2021-22 season, the over is 60% when the home team is an underdog, and the away team’s average number of goals is higher than 1.7. 

That system has proved most profitable this season. Sample the 80 games that qualify and bettors will find 51 cleared the pregame total. 

The underlying metrics back up the fact there will be ample goals in this fixture. 

This season, Newcastle home matches are averaging 3.73 expected goals per 90 minutes while Tottenham road matches are averaging 3.13 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

However, the most recent set of Newcastle home fixtures have proved even more chaotic. 

Sample their home matches since the calendar turned to 2024, and bettors will find they’re averaging 4.26 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Although that sample includes a healthy amount of penalties, a lengthy period has passed since they faced an attack on Tottenham’s level. 

In their last three matches against teams with a top-four non-penalty xG output per 90, they’ve allowed north of 2.5 xG to all three. 

Tottenham have also shown they can boss the league’s worst defenses. 

Sample games against teams ranking 16th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes, and bettors will find they’ve created 2.26 expected goals per 90 minutes, including 3.8 against Newcastle. 

That said, the Tottenham defense has looked vulnerable of late. They’ve conceded at least 1.5 xG in two straight games and let Newcastle create 1.7 in the reverse fixture. 

Given Newcastle are markedly better at home offensively – 2.39 xG per 90 at home vs. 1.35 xG per 90 on the road – expect goals from the hosts as well. 

Take the over as a result. 

Tottenham Form 

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L

March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W

Newcastle United Form

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W

March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)

March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.