Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Arsenal's manager Mikel Arteta speaks to the players while Gabriel Jesus, right, gestures to the crowd during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Brighton and Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium in London, Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 09, 2024, 6:35 PM
  • Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
  • Aston Villa earned a 1-0 home win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Why bettors should expect Arsenal to dominate at home on Sunday.

It’s the marquee fixture of Sunday’s Premier League slate as Aston Villa travel to London for a match against Arsenal. 

Arsenal thrashed Brighton 3-0 in their most recent Premier League fixture before drawing Bayern Munich 2-2 in their midweek Champions League fixture. 

As for Aston Villa, they drew 3-3 in their most recent Premier League fixture against Brentford. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -375
  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +950
  • Draw Moneyline: +525
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Arsenal Spread (-1.5, -145) vs. Villa – Wait for Lineups

Although it’s a lot of juice to lay with the hosts, I’ll be surprised if they don’t win outright on Sunday. 

A cover is more difficult to predict, especially with a Wednesday Champions League trip to Munich looming. However, history says it’s a good spot for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. 

The first factor to note here is that, under Arteta, Arsenal is 7-0 SU at home in games immediately following a win by three or more goals and 10-2 SU irrespective of venue. 

Additionally, Arsenal is 59.6% ATS as a home favorite under Arteta, including 13-10 at -1.5 or higher. 

There’s another system that suggests they’ll both win and cover the spread. 

Essentially, bettors are wise to fade road underdogs coming off a non-win as home favorites. 

Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites with a winning percentage north of 60% are 25-6 SU and 23-7-1 ATS assuming the following factors: 

  • The opponent was a home favorite in their previous game
  • The opponent’s previous game margin was between -4 and 0
  • The spread is between -2 and 0

When that home favorite lost the previous head-to-head meeting, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS over that same timeframe. 

It’s also a nightmare scheduling spot for Aston Villa, who face a Thursday Europa Conference league fixture at home before heading to London on Sunday. 

That gives Arsenal two extra days of rest over Villa. Plus, Villa has struggled away from home against quality competition this season. 

In trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, manager Unai Emery’s side is 0-2 SU and has allowed both teams to create at least 2.5 expected goals. 

Lastly, although Villa earned a 1-0 home win in the previous meeting, they basically held on for dear life after taking an early lead. 

That showed itself in the underlying stats, which saw Arsenal win the expected goals battle 1.4 to 0.6 and the big scoring chances battle 4-0, per 

As a result, back the hosts to earn a straight up win against a Villa side on short rest.

Arsenal Form 

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W

April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W

March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D

March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)

Aston Villa Form

April 11 vs. Lille

April 3 at Man City: 1-4, L

March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.