- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa earned a 1-0 home win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Why bettors should expect Arsenal to dominate at home on Sunday.
It’s the marquee fixture of Sunday’s Premier League slate as Aston Villa travel to London for a match against Arsenal.
Arsenal thrashed Brighton 3-0 in their most recent Premier League fixture before drawing Bayern Munich 2-2 in their midweek Champions League fixture.
As for Aston Villa, they drew 3-3 in their most recent Premier League fixture against Brentford.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa
- Arsenal Moneyline: -375
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +950
- Draw Moneyline: +525
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Aston Villa
Arsenal Spread (-1.5, -145) vs. Villa – Wait for Lineups
Although it’s a lot of juice to lay with the hosts, I’ll be surprised if they don’t win outright on Sunday.
A cover is more difficult to predict, especially with a Wednesday Champions League trip to Munich looming. However, history says it’s a good spot for manager Mikel Arteta’s side.
The first factor to note here is that, under Arteta, Arsenal is 7-0 SU at home in games immediately following a win by three or more goals and 10-2 SU irrespective of venue.
Additionally, Arsenal is 59.6% ATS as a home favorite under Arteta, including 13-10 at -1.5 or higher.
There’s another system that suggests they’ll both win and cover the spread.
Essentially, bettors are wise to fade road underdogs coming off a non-win as home favorites.
Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites with a winning percentage north of 60% are 25-6 SU and 23-7-1 ATS assuming the following factors:
- The opponent was a home favorite in their previous game
- The opponent’s previous game margin was between -4 and 0
- The spread is between -2 and 0
When that home favorite lost the previous head-to-head meeting, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS over that same timeframe.
It’s also a nightmare scheduling spot for Aston Villa, who face a Thursday Europa Conference league fixture at home before heading to London on Sunday.
That gives Arsenal two extra days of rest over Villa. Plus, Villa has struggled away from home against quality competition this season.
In trips to Liverpool and Manchester City, manager Unai Emery’s side is 0-2 SU and has allowed both teams to create at least 2.5 expected goals.
Lastly, although Villa earned a 1-0 home win in the previous meeting, they basically held on for dear life after taking an early lead.
That showed itself in the underlying stats, which saw Arsenal win the expected goals battle 1.4 to 0.6 and the big scoring chances battle 4-0, per fotmob.com.
As a result, back the hosts to earn a straight up win against a Villa side on short rest.
Arsenal Form
April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Brighton: 3-0, W
April 3 vs. Luton Town: 2-0, W
March 31 at Man City: 0-0, D
March 12 vs. FC Porto: 1-0, W (Champions League)
Aston Villa Form
April 11 vs. Lille
April 3 at Man City: 1-4, L
March 30 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
March 17 at West Ham: 1-1, D
March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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