Chelsea vs. Everton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin during the English Premier League soccer match between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur, at the Goodison Park stadium, in Liverpool, England, Saturday, Feb. 3, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 11, 2024, 3:54 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Everton.
  • Everton earned a 2-0 home win in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Why this game is a great live betting opportunity.

It’s the Monday Premier League standalone match as Chelsea welcome Everton to Goodison Park. 

Everton, who produced a 2-0 win over Chelsea in an earlier meeting this season, enters this match in good form. Last time out, they beat Burnley 1-0 at home. 

As for Chelsea, they blew a 2-1 advantage late at Sheffield United to draw 2-2. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Everton

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -150
  • Everton Moneyline: +350
  • Draw Moneyline: +320
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+138)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Everton

Everton 2H Over 0.5 (-110) | Look for Everton +1.5 Live

From a spread standpoint, this game is quite interesting to me. 

Chelsea find themselves in a historically profitable moneyline range. 

Over the last four seasons, teams sitting between -131 and -174 are 67% SU, including 23-10 when they lost the previous meeting. 

However, Everton have looked good this season as dogs against teams they either drew or beat in the previous head-to-head meeting.

The sample is a touch small for my liking, but the Toffees are 6-1-1 ATS against such teams, including 2-1 ATS in their last three. 

Worth noting – they’ve stayed within a goal in three straight games against those teams. 

I lean to Everton +0.5 and the draw moneyline in this game, but I’d prefer to try and find Everton +1.5 live. 

They found themselves down to Bournemouth on 64 minutes and conceded an early goal to Newcastle United in their last road fixture. 

Chelsea have opened the scoring in six straight fixtures, so there’s a chance bettors could find a better number live.

If it gets to +1.5 live, I’d take it. If Everton can hang on for a half and +0.5 is available at -135 or better, it’s worth a bet for the second half. 

As for the team total, this is largely a fade of Chelsea’s sub-par defense. 

This season, Chelsea has conceded at least one goal in 20 of 30 second halves, including six straight. 

The last time they faced Everton, Chelsea conceded both of their goals in the second half at Goodison Park. 

Recently, Everton’s attack has struggled to create in the first half. 

In their last five games in which they’ve scored, four of their solitary goals have come in the second half. 

I don’t expect Everton to come out of their shell until they’re behind, so bettors shouldn’t expect them to go for it here. 

Add in the heavy juice on both teams to score (-175), and it’s reasonable to assume there’s an Everton goal in this match. 

Take it to come in the second half rather than -250 for the match. 

Chelsea Form 

April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D

April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W

March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 17 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W (FA Cup)

March 11 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W

Everton Form

April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W

April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L

March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L

March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.