- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Everton.
- Everton earned a 2-0 home win in the last head-to-head meeting.
- Why this game is a great live betting opportunity.
It’s the Monday Premier League standalone match as Chelsea welcome Everton to Goodison Park.
Everton, who produced a 2-0 win over Chelsea in an earlier meeting this season, enters this match in good form. Last time out, they beat Burnley 1-0 at home.
As for Chelsea, they blew a 2-1 advantage late at Sheffield United to draw 2-2.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Everton
- Chelsea Moneyline: -150
- Everton Moneyline: +350
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+138)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Everton
Everton 2H Over 0.5 (-110) | Look for Everton +1.5 Live
From a spread standpoint, this game is quite interesting to me.
Chelsea find themselves in a historically profitable moneyline range.
Over the last four seasons, teams sitting between -131 and -174 are 67% SU, including 23-10 when they lost the previous meeting.
However, Everton have looked good this season as dogs against teams they either drew or beat in the previous head-to-head meeting.
The sample is a touch small for my liking, but the Toffees are 6-1-1 ATS against such teams, including 2-1 ATS in their last three.
Worth noting – they’ve stayed within a goal in three straight games against those teams.
I lean to Everton +0.5 and the draw moneyline in this game, but I’d prefer to try and find Everton +1.5 live.
They found themselves down to Bournemouth on 64 minutes and conceded an early goal to Newcastle United in their last road fixture.
Chelsea have opened the scoring in six straight fixtures, so there’s a chance bettors could find a better number live.
If it gets to +1.5 live, I’d take it. If Everton can hang on for a half and +0.5 is available at -135 or better, it’s worth a bet for the second half.
As for the team total, this is largely a fade of Chelsea’s sub-par defense.
This season, Chelsea has conceded at least one goal in 20 of 30 second halves, including six straight.
The last time they faced Everton, Chelsea conceded both of their goals in the second half at Goodison Park.
Recently, Everton’s attack has struggled to create in the first half.
In their last five games in which they’ve scored, four of their solitary goals have come in the second half.
I don’t expect Everton to come out of their shell until they’re behind, so bettors shouldn’t expect them to go for it here.
Add in the heavy juice on both teams to score (-175), and it’s reasonable to assume there’s an Everton goal in this match.
Take it to come in the second half rather than -250 for the match.
Chelsea Form
April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D
April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W
March 30 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 17 vs. Leicester City: 4-2, W (FA Cup)
March 11 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W
Everton Form
April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L
March 2 vs. West Ham United: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | May. 1 | 2:30 p.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Wolves | May. 2 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | May. 3 | 7:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Everton | Ipswich Town | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Leicester City | Southampton | May. 3 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | May. 3 | 12:30 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | Manchester United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Brighton | Newcastle United | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| West Ham | Tottenham | May. 4 | 9 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | May. 4 | 11:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | May. 5 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-7-2 | 82 | 48 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 19-5-10 | 62 | 21 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Chelsea | 17-9-8 | 60 | 19 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Fulham | 14-9-11 | 51 | 4 |
| Brighton | 13-13-8 | 51 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 13-11-10 | 50 | 12 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Wolves | 12-5-17 | 41 | -10 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-15 | 39 | -8 |
| Everton | 8-14-12 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-19 | 37 | 6 |
| West Ham | 9-9-16 | 36 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-21 | 21 | -41 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-24 | 18 | -49 |
| Southampton | 2-5-27 | 11 | -55 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-14-2 | 55.9% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 18-15-1 | 54.4% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-3 | 39.7% | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-6 | 58.8% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Fulham | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-4 | 64.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-19-2 | 41.2% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Leicester City | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-7-1 | 55.9% |
| Liverpool | 16-16-2 | 50.0% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-16-4 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% |
| Newcastle United | 20-13-1 | 60.3% | 12-5-0 | 70.6% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-4 | 41.2% | 3-12-2 | 23.5% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-21-1 | 36.8% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-2 | 52.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-13-3 | 57.4% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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