Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk gestures during an English Premier League soccer match.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 10, 2024, 7:04 PM
  • Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Liverpool earned a 2-1 road win in the previous meeting.
  • Why bettors should target a spread and prop market for Sunday’s game.

As they seek to recover from dropping points at Old Trafford, Liverpool welcome Crystal Palace to Anfield on Sunday. 

The Reds jumped out to a 1-0 advantage against Manchester United but had to settle for a point in a 2-2 draw last weekend. 

As for Crystal Palace, their offense produced some quality against Manchester City. However, they ultimately fell 4-2 at home. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -450
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +1050
  • Draw Moneyline: +600
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace

Same Game Parlay: BTTS – “Yes” & Over 2.5 (+105) | LEAN Crystal Palace Spread (+1.5, +120) – Wait for Lineups

The market hasn’t caught up to Crystal Palace when they have both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in their Starting XI. 

The pair has started in four games this season. In those contests, both teams have scored and the total has cleared 2.5 goals all four times. 

Although the level of defensive opposition leaves something to be desired – the four opponents are Brentford, Chelsea, Luton Town and Sheffield United – I’m confident Palace will score on Sunday. 

The first factor worth considering is that Palace played very well offensively against Liverpool at home. 

Their lone goal came via a penalty kick, but they created one non-penalty expected goal without Eze and Olise in the lineup. 

They also get a Liverpool side on short rest. Sunday’s hosts play a Thursday home fixture in the Europa League, which could lead to some tired legs at the back. 

This season, Liverpool have played seven matches in games immediately following a Thursday game and have surrendered at least one expected goal five times. 

At the same time, don’t expect this Palace defense to keep out Liverpool. 

Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side leads the Premier League in expected goals at home and have scored fewer than two goals only three times. 

However, two of those failures saw them clear two expected goals. 

As for the spread, Palace match a historically profitable system. However, I’d prefer a higher price on +1.5 or a flat +2 to back them on the road. 

Since the 2021-22 season, road dogs sitting between +0.75 and +3 are 38-12-4 ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -6
  • The team’s 10 Game recent win percentage is between 0% and 30%

Even more profitable is when their opponent failed to win their previous game. On those occasions, the dog is 18-4-2 ATS. 

If Eze and Olise both start, I probably will end up backing the dogs at +1.5. However, wait until lineups to confirm both wagers. 

Liverpool Form 

April 11 vs. Atalanta

April 7 at Manchester United: 2-2, D

April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W

March 31 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

March 17 at Manchester United: 3-4, L (FA Cup, AET)

Crystal Palace Form

April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L

April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L

March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

March 9 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D

March 2 at Tottenham: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.