- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Liverpool earned a 2-1 road win in the previous meeting.
- Why bettors should target a spread and prop market for Sunday’s game.
As they seek to recover from dropping points at Old Trafford, Liverpool welcome Crystal Palace to Anfield on Sunday.
The Reds jumped out to a 1-0 advantage against Manchester United but had to settle for a point in a 2-2 draw last weekend.
As for Crystal Palace, their offense produced some quality against Manchester City. However, they ultimately fell 4-2 at home.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace
- Liverpool Moneyline: -450
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +1050
- Draw Moneyline: +600
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace
Same Game Parlay: BTTS – “Yes” & Over 2.5 (+105) | LEAN Crystal Palace Spread (+1.5, +120) – Wait for Lineups
The market hasn’t caught up to Crystal Palace when they have both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in their Starting XI.
The pair has started in four games this season. In those contests, both teams have scored and the total has cleared 2.5 goals all four times.
Although the level of defensive opposition leaves something to be desired – the four opponents are Brentford, Chelsea, Luton Town and Sheffield United – I’m confident Palace will score on Sunday.
The first factor worth considering is that Palace played very well offensively against Liverpool at home.
Their lone goal came via a penalty kick, but they created one non-penalty expected goal without Eze and Olise in the lineup.
They also get a Liverpool side on short rest. Sunday’s hosts play a Thursday home fixture in the Europa League, which could lead to some tired legs at the back.
This season, Liverpool have played seven matches in games immediately following a Thursday game and have surrendered at least one expected goal five times.
At the same time, don’t expect this Palace defense to keep out Liverpool.
Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side leads the Premier League in expected goals at home and have scored fewer than two goals only three times.
However, two of those failures saw them clear two expected goals.
As for the spread, Palace match a historically profitable system. However, I’d prefer a higher price on +1.5 or a flat +2 to back them on the road.
Since the 2021-22 season, road dogs sitting between +0.75 and +3 are 38-12-4 ATS, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -6
- The team’s 10 Game recent win percentage is between 0% and 30%
Even more profitable is when their opponent failed to win their previous game. On those occasions, the dog is 18-4-2 ATS.
If Eze and Olise both start, I probably will end up backing the dogs at +1.5. However, wait until lineups to confirm both wagers.
Liverpool Form
April 11 vs. Atalanta
April 7 at Manchester United: 2-2, D
April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W
March 31 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
March 17 at Manchester United: 3-4, L (FA Cup, AET)
Crystal Palace Form
April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L
April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L
March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
March 9 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D
March 2 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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