Chelsea vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
(AP Photo/Ian Walton)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 3:01 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • West Ham earned a 3-1 home win against the Blues in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should expect goals on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

Itโ€™s a London Derby on Sunday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting West Ham United.ย 

Both teams enter Sundayโ€™s game fresh off a positive result. Chelsea earned a 2-0 midweek win over Tottenham while West Ham captured a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool last weekend.ย 

When these sides last met, the Hammers captured an improbable 3-1 win despite going down a man late.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sundayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. West Ham

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -160
  • West Ham Moneyline: +360
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. West Ham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-110)ย 

West Ham donโ€™t know how to play low-event games away from home.ย 

In 17 road matches this season, their matches have averaged 3.54 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.ย 

Accordingly, the Hammers are 13-4 to the over this season away from home, including 9-3 when theyโ€™re a road underdog.ย 

Thatโ€™s going to put their defense in trouble against a Chelsea side that has amassed the third-most expected goals at home this season.ย 

The Blues have cleared two expected goals in four consecutive home matches and 11 of 17 overall.ย 

When these sides last met โ€“ Chelsea didnโ€™t have Cole Palmer yet โ€“ they generated 1.7 non-penalty expected goals against the Hammers.ย 

Given West Ham have surrendered at least 1.7 xG in three straight and rank 17th in road expected goals against, expect goals from Chelsea.ย 

At the same time, donโ€™t count out this West Ham attack.ย 

When these sides last played, manager David Moyes didnโ€™t have Mohamed Kudus at his disposal.ย 

Yet, they still created 1.68 post-shot expected goals against Chelsea, excluding their penalty kick in stoppage time.ย 

In their last fixture against Liverpool, the Hammers created 2.6 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.ย 

For the season, Liverpool rate out a better defense than Chelsea, who is facing an injury crisis at the back.ย 

Plus, the last time Chelsea played back-to-back home matches on short rest, they allowed 2.1 psxG to Manchester United.ย 

Chelsea were lucky not to concede against Tottenham โ€“ Spurs created 1.65 xG and two big chances โ€“ so bettors should expect some immediate regression on short rest.ย 

One final note โ€“ overs this season featuring a home favorite against a side allowing between 1.3 and 1.9 goals per game are 64.2% to the over when the total is 2.5 or 3.5.ย 

As a result, bet on goals Sunday at Stamford Bridge.ย 

Chelsea Formย 

May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

April 20 at Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W

West Ham Form

April 27 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L

April 18 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L

April 11 at Bayer Leverkusen: 0-2, L (Europa League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
SouthamptonManchester UnitedSep. 147:30 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionIpswich TownSep. 1410 a.m.Amex Stadium
Crystal PalaceLeicester CitySep. 1410 a.m.Selhurst Park
FulhamWest Ham UnitedSep. 1410 a.m.Craven Cottage
LiverpoolNottingham ForestSep. 1410 a.m.Anfield
Manchester CityBrentfordSep. 1410 a.m.Etihad Stadium
Aston VillaEvertonSep. 1412:30 p.m.Villa Park
BournemouthChelseaSep. 143:30 p.m.Vitality Stadium
TottenhamArsenalSep. 159 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
WolvesNewcastle UnitedSep. 1511 a.m.Molineux

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-0-0128
Arsenal3-1-0105
Newcastle United3-1-0103
Liverpool3-0-196
Aston Villa3-0-191
Brighton & Hove Albion2-2-084
Nottingham Forest2-2-082
Chelsea2-1-173
Brentford2-0-260
Manchester United2-0-260
Bournemouth1-2-150
Fulham1-2-150
Tottenham Hotspur1-1-242
West Ham United1-1-24-1
Leicester City0-2-22-2
Crystal Palace0-2-22-3
Ipswich Town0-2-22-5
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-31-7
Southampton0-0-40-7
Everton0-0-40-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal2-2-0.5000-2-0.0002-0-01.000
Aston Villa3-1-0.7501-1-0.5002-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-1-0.7501-1-0.5002-0-01.000
Brentford3-1-0.7502-0-01.0001-1-0.500
Brighton & Hove Albion3-1-0.7501-1-0.5002-0-01.000
Chelsea2-2-0.5000-2-0.0002-0-01.000
Crystal Palace1-3-0.2500-2-0.0001-1-0.500
Everton0-4-0.0000-2-0.0000-2-0.000
Fulham1-3-0.2501-1-01.0000-2-0.000
Ipswich Town2-2-0.5001-1-0.5001-1-0.500
Leicester City2-2-0.5001-1-0.5001-1-0.500
Liverpool3-1-0.7501-1-0.5002-0-01.000
Manchester City3-1-0.7501-1-0.5002-0-01.000
Manchester United2-2-0.5001-1-0.5001-1-0.500
Newcastle United2-2-0.5001-1-0.5001-1-0.500
Nottingham Forest2-2-0.5000-2-0.0002-0-01.000
Southampton1-3-0.2500-2-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur1-3-0.2501-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-2-0.5000-2-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-2-0.5000-2-0.0002-0-01.000

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.