- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- West Ham earned a 3-1 home win against the Blues in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should expect goals on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.
It’s a London Derby on Sunday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting West Ham United.
Both teams enter Sunday’s game fresh off a positive result. Chelsea earned a 2-0 midweek win over Tottenham while West Ham captured a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool last weekend.
When these sides last met, the Hammers captured an improbable 3-1 win despite going down a man late.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. West Ham
- Chelsea Moneyline: -160
- West Ham Moneyline: +360
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. West Ham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-110)
West Ham don’t know how to play low-event games away from home.
In 17 road matches this season, their matches have averaged 3.54 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Accordingly, the Hammers are 13-4 to the over this season away from home, including 9-3 when they’re a road underdog.
That’s going to put their defense in trouble against a Chelsea side that has amassed the third-most expected goals at home this season.
The Blues have cleared two expected goals in four consecutive home matches and 11 of 17 overall.
When these sides last met – Chelsea didn’t have Cole Palmer yet – they generated 1.7 non-penalty expected goals against the Hammers.
Given West Ham have surrendered at least 1.7 xG in three straight and rank 17th in road expected goals against, expect goals from Chelsea.
At the same time, don’t count out this West Ham attack.
When these sides last played, manager David Moyes didn’t have Mohamed Kudus at his disposal.
Yet, they still created 1.68 post-shot expected goals against Chelsea, excluding their penalty kick in stoppage time.
In their last fixture against Liverpool, the Hammers created 2.6 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
For the season, Liverpool rate out a better defense than Chelsea, who is facing an injury crisis at the back.
Plus, the last time Chelsea played back-to-back home matches on short rest, they allowed 2.1 psxG to Manchester United.
Chelsea were lucky not to concede against Tottenham – Spurs created 1.65 xG and two big chances – so bettors should expect some immediate regression on short rest.
One final note – overs this season featuring a home favorite against a side allowing between 1.3 and 1.9 goals per game are 64.2% to the over when the total is 2.5 or 3.5.
As a result, bet on goals Sunday at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea Form
May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W
April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D
April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
April 20 at Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W
West Ham Form
April 27 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L
April 18 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L
April 11 at Bayer Leverkusen: 0-2, L (Europa League)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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