Chelsea vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
(AP Photo/Ian Walton)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 3:01 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • West Ham earned a 3-1 home win against the Blues in the reverse fixture.
  • Why bettors should expect goals on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

It’s a London Derby on Sunday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting West Ham United. 

Both teams enter Sunday’s game fresh off a positive result. Chelsea earned a 2-0 midweek win over Tottenham while West Ham captured a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool last weekend. 

When these sides last met, the Hammers captured an improbable 3-1 win despite going down a man late. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. West Ham

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -160
  • West Ham Moneyline: +360
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. West Ham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-110) 

West Ham don’t know how to play low-event games away from home. 

In 17 road matches this season, their matches have averaged 3.54 expected goals per 90 minutes, per 

Accordingly, the Hammers are 13-4 to the over this season away from home, including 9-3 when they’re a road underdog. 

That’s going to put their defense in trouble against a Chelsea side that has amassed the third-most expected goals at home this season. 

The Blues have cleared two expected goals in four consecutive home matches and 11 of 17 overall. 

When these sides last met – Chelsea didn’t have Cole Palmer yet – they generated 1.7 non-penalty expected goals against the Hammers. 

Given West Ham have surrendered at least 1.7 xG in three straight and rank 17th in road expected goals against, expect goals from Chelsea. 

At the same time, don’t count out this West Ham attack. 

When these sides last played, manager David Moyes didn’t have Mohamed Kudus at his disposal. 

Yet, they still created 1.68 post-shot expected goals against Chelsea, excluding their penalty kick in stoppage time. 

In their last fixture against Liverpool, the Hammers created 2.6 post-shot expected goals, per 

For the season, Liverpool rate out a better defense than Chelsea, who is facing an injury crisis at the back. 

Plus, the last time Chelsea played back-to-back home matches on short rest, they allowed 2.1 psxG to Manchester United. 

Chelsea were lucky not to concede against Tottenham – Spurs created 1.65 xG and two big chances – so bettors should expect some immediate regression on short rest. 

One final note – overs this season featuring a home favorite against a side allowing between 1.3 and 1.9 goals per game are 64.2% to the over when the total is 2.5 or 3.5. 

As a result, bet on goals Sunday at Stamford Bridge. 

Chelsea Form 

May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W

April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D

April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

April 20 at Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)

April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W

West Ham Form

April 27 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L

April 18 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L

April 11 at Bayer Leverkusen: 0-2, L (Europa League)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.