Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton. 

Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea. 

As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

• Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
• Brighton Moneyline: +175
• Draw Moneyline: +280
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)

Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game. 

Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline. 

Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match. 

In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday. 

Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically. 

Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park. 

Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle  only once in their previous eight games. 

Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season. 

They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road. 

With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home. 

Aston Villa Form 

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)

April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W

April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)

Brighton Form

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

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