Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 3:00 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
  • The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.

Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton. 

Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea. 

As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
  • Brighton Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)

Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game. 

Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline. 

Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match. 

In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday. 

Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically. 

Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park. 

Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle  only once in their previous eight games. 

Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season. 

They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road. 

With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home. 

Aston Villa Form 

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)

April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W

April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)

Brighton Form

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.