- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
- The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.
Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton.Â
Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea.Â
As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
- Brighton Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)
Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw.Â
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game.Â
Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline.Â
Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match.Â
In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday.Â
Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically.Â
Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park.Â
Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle only once in their previous eight games.Â
Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season.Â
They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road.Â
With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home.Â
Aston Villa FormÂ
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)
Brighton Form
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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