Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 3:00 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
  • Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
  • The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.

Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton. 

Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea. 

As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
  • Brighton Moneyline: +175
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton

Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)

Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game. 

Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline. 

Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match. 

In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday. 

Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically. 

Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park. 

Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle  only once in their previous eight games. 

Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season. 

They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road. 

With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home. 

Aston Villa Form 

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)

April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W

April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)

Brighton Form

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L

April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D

April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L

April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.