- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Villa thrashed Brighton 6-1 earlier this season at Villa Park.
- The case for fading a Brighton team with little motivation.
Aston Villa, looking to put a stranglehold on a Champions League position, travel on Sunday to face Brighton.
Villa enters this match in decent form. They’re unbeaten in four straight league games but dropped points by blowing a 2-0 lead last weekend against Chelsea.
As for Brighton, they look like a team playing with minimal motivation. The Seagulls have dropped two straight games by 3+ goals and last won a league game on March 10.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my pick for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +130
- Brighton Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +280
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-150)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Brighton
Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (-145)
Brighton look like they’ve quit this season and history suggests the best they can do is a draw.
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs that have allowed three or more goals in two straight games are 31-138 SU, assuming they closed an underdog in their previous game.
Even when those teams play at home, they’re only 13-63 SU against the three-way moneyline.
Additionally, Brighton face major personnel concerns for Sunday’s match.
In addition to the injuries that have plagued their attack for months – Solly March, Evan Ferguson and Kaoru Mitoma – they face two key defensive absences on Sunday.
Both Pervis Estupinan and Jan Paul van Hecke are out for Sunday’s meeting against a Villa side that has dominated them historically.
Villa have avoided defeat in seven straight league meetings against Brighton and posted a +2.1 post-shot expected goal differential at Villa Park.
Although Brighton have a rest edge for Sunday’s match, they’ve won the expected goals battle only once in their previous eight games.
Plus, Villa have done quite well as a favorite this season.
They’re 16-9 SU in such spots – including 6-3 away from home – and have dropped all three points only five times, including once on the road.
With manager Unai Emery’s side playing with greater motivation, take them to do no worse than a draw on Sunday away from home.
Aston Villa Form
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League)
April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W (Europa Conference League)
Brighton Form
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Man City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
April 3 at Brentford: 0-0, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Brighton | Everton | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Liverpool | Ipswich Town | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
| Southampton | Newcastle United | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Wolves | Arsenal | Jan. 25 | 10 a.m. | Molineux |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | Jan. 25 | 12:30 p.m | Etihad Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Tottenham | Leicester City | Jan. 26 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | Jan. 26 | 11:30 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Manchester United | Jan. 26 | 2 p.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 15-5-1 | 50 | 30 |
| Arsenal | 12-8-2 | 44 | 22 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13-5-4 | 44 | 11 |
| Chelsea | 11-7-4 | 40 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 11-5-6 | 38 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 11-5-6 | 38 | 12 |
| Bournemouth | 10-7-5 | 37 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | 10-6-6 | 36 | -1 |
| Brighton | 8-10-4 | 34 | 5 |
| Fulham | 8-9-5 | 33 | 4 |
| Brentford | 8-4-10 | 28 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 6-9-7 | 27 | -3 |
| Manchester United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -5 |
| West Ham United | 7-5-10 | 26 | -16 |
| Tottenham | 7-3-12 | 24 | 10 |
| Everton | 4-8-9 | 20 | -10 |
| Wolves | 4-4-14 | 16 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-12 | 16 | -23 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-14 | 14 | -25 |
| Southampton | 1-3-18 | 6 | -35 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 8-10-4 | 45.5% | 2-6-3 | 31.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Aston Villa | 8-13-1 | 38.6% | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% |
| Bournemouth | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 5-3-2 | 60.0% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 8-3-1 | 70.8% |
| Chelsea | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 12-7-3 | 61.4% | 4-4-3 | 50.0% | 8-3-0 | 72.7% |
| Everton | 10-9-2 | 52.4% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Fulham | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 7-2-2 | 72.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 6-3-1 | 65.0% |
| Leicester City | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 5-4-1 | 55.0% |
| Liverpool | 11-9-1 | 54.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% |
| Manchester City | 6-16-0 | 27.3% | 2-8-0 | 20.0% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 9-11-2 | 45.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 4-5-1 | 45.0% |
| Newcastle United | 12-9-1 | 56.8% | 7-4-0 | 63.6% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-7-0 | 68.2% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 9-2-0 | 81.8% |
| Southampton | 8-11-3 | 43.2% | 2-7-1 | 25.0% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8-14-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% |
| West Ham United | 10-11-1 | 47.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 6-4-0 | 60.0% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9-12-1 | 43.2% | 4-6-0 | 40.0% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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