Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Chelsea's Mykhailo Mudryk, second left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Chelsea at Craven Cottage in London, Monday, Oct. 2, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Chelsea earned a 2-1 home win over Palace in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Without key attackers, Palaceโ€™s offense should struggle.

Ahead of Mondayโ€™s Premier League match at Selhurst Park, Iโ€™m here to offer a Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea prediction.ย 

Hosts Palace are coming off a bad loss in their last outing against Brighton. Albeit away from home, they found themselves down 4-0 before salvaging a late goal.ย 

As for Chelsea, theyโ€™re coming off a bad 4-2 home defeat against Wolves despite claiming an early 1-0 advantage.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Mondayโ€™s match.ย 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -125
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +333
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

Same Game Parlay: 1H Under 1.5 Goals & Chelsea 2H Double Chance (-125)

I lean to Chelsea on the three-way moneyline, but theyโ€™re tough to trust as a road favorite.ย 

The Blues have closed a road favorite eight times this season and have posted a non-penalty post shot expected goal differential of -0.5 or higher only twice.ย 

Further, theyโ€™ve won the nppsxGโ€™s battle only three times in those eight matches.ย 

Plus, theyโ€™re running into a Palace side that defends very well early.ย 

Manager Roy Hodgsonโ€™s side has closed a home underdog four times this season. In those four matches, the first half averages only 0.57 nppsxGโ€™s, per fotmob.com.ย 

Further, Palace have never found themselves behind at the end of 45 minutes in those contests, with all four staying under 1.5 goals.ย 

If that proves true once again and Palace does no worse than a first half draw, theyโ€™d have to win the second half outright for this Same Game Parlay to lose.

The problem? Theyโ€™ll be without key attackers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise.ย 

Per fbref.com, Eze and Olise are sitting on 0.55 expected goals + expected assists per 90 and 0.77 xG + xA per 90, the two best benchmarks for Palace.ย 

As a result, I question how they will win the game outright against Chelsea, who possess better attackers. Plus, theyโ€™ve cleared 1.4 nppsxGโ€™s in their last two games as road favorites.ย 

Accordingly, expect Chelsea to do no worse than a draw in the second half and back this parlay at -130 or better.

Chelsea Formย 

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 13 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W

Dec. 30 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Dec. 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

Jan. 20 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

Dec. 30 vs. Brentford: 3-1, W

Dec 27 at Chelsea: 1-2, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrightonChelseaFeb. 143 p.m.Amex Stadium
Leicester CityArsenalFeb. 157:30 a.m.King Power Stadium
Aston VillaIpswich TownFeb. 1510 a.m.Villa Park
FulhamNottingham ForestFeb. 1510 a.m.Craven Cottage
Man CityNewcastle UnitedFeb. 1510 a.m.Etihad Stadium
SouthamptonBournemouthFeb. 1510 a.m.St. Mary's Stadium
West Ham UnitedBrentfordFeb. 1510 a.m.London Stadium
Crystal PalaceEvertonFeb. 1512:30 p.m.Selhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesFeb. 169 a.m.Anfield
TottenhamManchester UnitedFeb. 1611:30 a.m.Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Liverpool17-5-15635
Arsenal14-8-25027
Nottingham Forest14-5-54713
Chelsea12-7-54316
Manchester City12-5-74113
Newcastle United12-5-74113
Bournemouth11-7-64013
Aston Villa10-7-737-3
Fulham9-9-6364
Brighton8-10-634-3
Brentford9-4-11310
Crystal Palace7-9-830-2
Manchester United8-5-1129-6
Tottenham8-3-132711
West Ham United7-6-1127-17
Everton6-8-926-5
Wolves5-4-1519-18
Leicester City3-5-1517-28
Ipswich Town3-7-1416-27
Southampton2-3-199-36

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS%Home ATS RecordHome ATS%Road ATS RecordRoad ATS%
Arsenal9-10-547.9%3-6-337.5%6-4-258.3%
Aston Villa8-15-135.4%3-8-129.2%5-7-041.7%
Bournemouth16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Brentford14-8-262.5%8-5-061.5%6-3-263.6%
Brighton & Hove Albion12-11-152.1%4-7-036.4%8-4-165.4%
Chelsea9-13-241.7%4-7-137.5%5-6-145.8%
Crystal Palace13-8-360.4%4-5-345.8%9-3-075.0%
Everton12-9-256.5%6-5-154.2%6-4-159.1%
Fulham14-8-262.5%5-7-041.7%8-2-275.0%
Ipswich Town10-13-143.8%4-9-030.8%6-4-159.1%
Leicester City11-12-147.9%5-7-041.7%6-5-154.2%
Liverpool13-9-158.7%5-5-150.0%8-4-066.7%
Manchester City7-17-029.2%3-8-027.3%4-9-030.8%
Manchester United10-12-245.8%5-7-142.3%5-5-150.0%
Newcastle United13-10-156.3%7-5-058.3%6-5-154.2%
Nottingham Forest16-8-066.7%7-5-058.3%9-3-075.0%
Southampton9-12-343.8%2-8-122.7%7-4-261.5%
Tottenham Hotspur9-15-037.5%4-8-033.3%5-7-041.7%
West Ham United12-11-152.1%4-7-137.5%8-4-066.7%
Wolverhampton Wanderers10-12-245.8%5-6-145.8%5-6-145.8%

EPL Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.

With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!

If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.

About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.