Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Chelsea's Mykhailo Mudryk, second left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Chelsea at Craven Cottage in London, Monday, Oct. 2, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 09, 2024, 11:04 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Chelsea earned a 2-1 home win over Palace in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Without key attackers, Palace’s offense should struggle.

Ahead of Monday’s Premier League match at Selhurst Park, I’m here to offer a Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea prediction. 

Hosts Palace are coming off a bad loss in their last outing against Brighton. Albeit away from home, they found themselves down 4-0 before salvaging a late goal. 

As for Chelsea, they’re coming off a bad 4-2 home defeat against Wolves despite claiming an early 1-0 advantage. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -125
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +333
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

Same Game Parlay: 1H Under 1.5 Goals & Chelsea 2H Double Chance (-125)

I lean to Chelsea on the three-way moneyline, but they’re tough to trust as a road favorite. 

The Blues have closed a road favorite eight times this season and have posted a non-penalty post shot expected goal differential of -0.5 or higher only twice. 

Further, they’ve won the nppsxG’s battle only three times in those eight matches. 

Plus, they’re running into a Palace side that defends very well early. 

Manager Roy Hodgson’s side has closed a home underdog four times this season. In those four matches, the first half averages only 0.57 nppsxG’s, per fotmob.com. 

Further, Palace have never found themselves behind at the end of 45 minutes in those contests, with all four staying under 1.5 goals. 

If that proves true once again and Palace does no worse than a first half draw, they’d have to win the second half outright for this Same Game Parlay to lose.

The problem? They’ll be without key attackers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. 

Per fbref.com, Eze and Olise are sitting on 0.55 expected goals + expected assists per 90 and 0.77 xG + xA per 90, the two best benchmarks for Palace. 

As a result, I question how they will win the game outright against Chelsea, who possess better attackers. Plus, they’ve cleared 1.4 nppsxG’s in their last two games as road favorites. 

Accordingly, expect Chelsea to do no worse than a draw in the second half and back this parlay at -130 or better.

Chelsea Form 

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 13 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W

Dec. 30 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Dec. 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

Jan. 20 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

Dec. 30 vs. Brentford: 3-1, W

Dec 27 at Chelsea: 1-2, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
BrentfordChelseaMar. 210:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
EvertonWest Ham UnitedMar. 210:00 AMGoodison Park
FulhamBrighton & Hove AlbionMar. 210:00 AMCraven Cottage
Newcastle WolvesMar. 210:00 AMSt. James' Park
Nottingham ForestLiverpoolMar. 210:00 AMThe City Ground
TottenhamCrystal PalaceMar. 210:00 AMTottenham Hotspur Stadium
Luton TownAston VillaMar. 212:30 PMKenilworth Road
BurnleyAFC BournmouthMar. 38:00 AMTurf Moor
Manchester CityManchester UnitedMar. 310:30 AMEtihad Stadium
Sheffield UnitedArsenalMar. 43:00 PMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Liverpool FC18-6-26038
Manchester City18-5-35933
Arsenal FC18-4-45839
Aston Villa FC16-4-65221
Tottenham Hotspur14-5-64714
Manchester United14-2-10440
Brighton & Hove Albion10-9-7398
West Ham United11-6-939-6
Wolverhampton11-5-10380
Newcastle United11-4-11379
Chelsea FC10-5-10351
Fulham FC9-5-1232-6
Crystal Palace7-7-1228-13
Bournemouth7-7-1128-14
Everton8-7-1125-66 Point Deduction
Brentford7-4-1525-11
Nottingham Forest6-6-1424-14
Luton Town5-5-1520-16
Burnley FC3-4-1913-33
Sheffield United3-4-1913-44

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal15-11.5778-5.6157-6.538
Aston Villa15-10-1.5969-4.6926-6-1.500
Bournemouth15-10.6007-5.5838-5.615
Brentford9-17.3464-9.3085-8.385
Brighton & Hove Albion13-13.5007-6.5386-7.462
Burnley9-17.3462-11.1547-6.538
Chelsea12-13.4807-5.5835-8.385
Crystal Palace13-13.5006-7.4627-6.538
Everton12-14.4626-7.4626-7.462
Fulham14-11-1.5588-4-1.6546-7.462
Liverpool14-12.5388-5.6156-7.462
Luton Town16-9.64010-3.7696-6.500
Manchester City10-16.3844-9.3086-7.462
Manchester United10-16.3844-9.3086-7.462
Newcastle United11-15.4238-5.6153-10.231
Nottingham Forest12-14.4624-9.3088-5.615
Sheffield United14-12.5387-6.5387-6.538
Tottenham Hotspur15-10.6007-6.5388-4.667
West Ham United13-13.5008-5.6155-8.385
Wolverhampton Wanderers15-11.5777-6.5388-5.615

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.