Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Chelsea's Mykhailo Mudryk, second left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Chelsea at Craven Cottage in London, Monday, Oct. 2, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 09, 2024, 11:04 PM
  • Chelsea is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
  • Chelsea earned a 2-1 home win over Palace in the last head-to-head meeting.
  • Without key attackers, Palace’s offense should struggle.

Ahead of Monday’s Premier League match at Selhurst Park, I’m here to offer a Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea prediction. 

Hosts Palace are coming off a bad loss in their last outing against Brighton. Albeit away from home, they found themselves down 4-0 before salvaging a late goal. 

As for Chelsea, they’re coming off a bad 4-2 home defeat against Wolves despite claiming an early 1-0 advantage. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

  • Chelsea Moneyline: -125
  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +333
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-130/-110)

EPL Prediction – Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

Same Game Parlay: 1H Under 1.5 Goals & Chelsea 2H Double Chance (-125)

I lean to Chelsea on the three-way moneyline, but they’re tough to trust as a road favorite. 

The Blues have closed a road favorite eight times this season and have posted a non-penalty post shot expected goal differential of -0.5 or higher only twice. 

Further, they’ve won the nppsxG’s battle only three times in those eight matches. 

Plus, they’re running into a Palace side that defends very well early. 

Manager Roy Hodgson’s side has closed a home underdog four times this season. In those four matches, the first half averages only 0.57 nppsxG’s, per 

Further, Palace have never found themselves behind at the end of 45 minutes in those contests, with all four staying under 1.5 goals. 

If that proves true once again and Palace does no worse than a first half draw, they’d have to win the second half outright for this Same Game Parlay to lose.

The problem? They’ll be without key attackers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. 

Per, Eze and Olise are sitting on 0.55 expected goals + expected assists per 90 and 0.77 xG + xA per 90, the two best benchmarks for Palace. 

As a result, I question how they will win the game outright against Chelsea, who possess better attackers. Plus, they’ve cleared 1.4 nppsxG’s in their last two games as road favorites. 

Accordingly, expect Chelsea to do no worse than a draw in the second half and back this parlay at -130 or better.

Chelsea Form 

Feb. 4 vs. Wolves: 2-4, L

Jan. 31 at Liverpool: 1-4, L

Jan. 13 vs. Fulham: 1-0, W

Dec. 30 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Dec. 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W

Crystal Palace Form

Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L

Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W

Jan. 20 at Arsenal: 0-5, L

Dec. 30 vs. Brentford: 3-1, W

Dec 27 at Chelsea: 1-2, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.