Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Crystal Palace players celebrate after Crystal Palace's Michael Olise, centre, scored his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Crystal Palace at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec.16, 2023.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 5:15 PM
  • Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Palace earned a 1-0 road win against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
  • Why bettors should expect Palace to continue their strong form.

For the final game of Premier League Matchday 36, Crystal Palace welcomes Manchester United to Selhurst Park. 

Hosts Palace enter this game in brilliant form. They’re unbeaten in four straight matches and have captured two consecutive wins at home. 

As for Manchester United, they have only one win in their last five in all competitions and dropped points last weekend at home to Burnley. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United

  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +130
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +180
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)

EPL Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United

Crystal Palace Draw, No Bet (-145)

Positive regression meets negative regression for Monday’s fixture in London. 

Palace have run pretty unlucky this season, particularly at home. Entering Monday’s match, they own a -12 goal differential against a -7.5 expected goal differential, per 

At Selhurst Park, it’s a +2 goal differential compared to a +3.4 expected goal differential. 

For Monday’s match, manager Oliver Glasner could return two key pieces to the Starting XI. 

Center-back Marc Guehi, who hasn’t played in months, and attacker Eberechi Eze — an absentee last weekend — could both feature against Manchester United. 

Entering Monday’s match, United have run really lucky away from home. 

Although most of the gap centers around trips to Brentford and Liverpool, United owns a -2 road goal differential compared to a -11.5 expected goal differential. 

Manager Erik ten Hag’s side has also failed to win four consecutive road matches and has only three wins in seven road matches this calendar year. 

United is also riddled with injuries as both Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford could miss Monday’s match along with both starting center-backs. 

Plus, I’m applying a bit of betting calculus for this game. 

In Premier League games this season featuring a home favorite against a side allowing between 1.4 and 1.9 goals per game, the over is 63.3%. 

That tells me to place my trust in the better defense for this game: Crystal Palace. 

To date, the Eagles rank sixth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Manchester United is 18th, according to 

I don’t hate a look at Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Goals (-120), but I’m more certain about them doing no worse than a draw. 

For those reasons, take the hosts at a short price on Monday. 

Crystal Palace Form 

April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W

April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W

April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W

April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L

Manchester United Form

April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup)

April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.