- Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
- Both teams earned outright wins in their previous games, but Everton won at Brentford.
- Why the market hasn’t caught up to Everton’s strength at home.
On the heels of a thrilling 2-0 win against Liverpool, Everton are set to host Brentford at Goodison Park.
The win for manager Sean Dyche’s side all but guarantees them safety from relegation. Entering Saturday’s clash with Brentford, Everton have won three of their last four.
However, they’ll have their hands full on Saturday against a Brentford team that’s unbeaten in five with two straight victories.
Below, bettors can find the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Brentford
- Everton Moneyline: +138
- Brentford Moneyline: +180
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)
EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Brentford
Same Game Parlay: Everton Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+105)
A number of systems suggest Everton are primed to win Saturday’s game, but the short turnaround worries me enough to use them in a Same Game Parlay.
Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a win as dogs by either one or two goals are 54.7% SU. Within that sample, bettors will find they’ve lost outright only 54 times in 265 games.
History also suggests it’s unlikely Brentford capture all three points.
Over the same time period, road underdogs off a win as favorites that lost the previous head-to-head are 35-167 SU, assuming the game number is between 10 and 38.
When their opponent won their previous game by at least two goals, those dogs drop to 9-39 SU.
Two more systems suggest Everton do no worse than a draw.
Since 2012-13, home favorites between -0.5 and -1 against a previous favorite on a win streak between two and five are 63.1% SU and have lost only 36 of 104 games.
In the last three seasons, those home favorites are 20-8-1 ATS and have lost outright only eight times.
Finally, home teams off a win as underdogs against a previous favorite are 56.7% ATS. Over the last three years, those teams are 66% ATS.
All those metrics tell me Everton won’t do worse than a point at Goodison Park.
As for the total, something interesting is happening with the odds.
Both teams to score is juiced to -160 while over 2.5 goals is -135. However, Everton’s team total is juiced -155 to the under while Brentford’s is juiced -190 to the under.
Those prices tell me this match will stay under 3.5 goals. This season, Everton have seen only eight games clear 3.5 goals.
Given the strength of the Toffees’ defense – they’re a top-six side in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes – I’ll buy low on Brentford’s defense against a weak attack.
Take the under on Saturday at Goodison Park as a result.
Everton Form
April 24 vs. Liverpool: 2-0, W
April 21 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W
April 15 at Chelsea: 0-6, L
April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
Brentford Form
April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W
April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D
April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D
March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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