Everton vs. Brentford Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin during the English Premier League soccer match between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur, at the Goodison Park stadium, in Liverpool, England, Saturday, Feb. 3, 2024.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 2:18 PM
  • Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brentford.
  • Both teams earned outright wins in their previous games, but Everton won at Brentford.
  • Why the market hasn’t caught up to Everton’s strength at home.

On the heels of a thrilling 2-0 win against Liverpool, Everton are set to host Brentford at Goodison Park. 

The win for manager Sean Dyche’s side all but guarantees them safety from relegation. Entering Saturday’s clash with Brentford, Everton have won three of their last four. 

However, they’ll have their hands full on Saturday against a Brentford team that’s unbeaten in five with two straight victories. 

Below, bettors can find the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Brentford

  • Everton Moneyline: +138
  • Brentford Moneyline: +180
  • Draw Moneyline: +250
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over Price/Under Price)

EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Brentford

Same Game Parlay: Everton Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (+105)

A number of systems suggest Everton are primed to win Saturday’s game, but the short turnaround worries me enough to use them in a Same Game Parlay. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a win as dogs by either one or two goals are 54.7% SU. Within that sample, bettors will find they’ve lost outright only 54 times in 265 games. 

History also suggests it’s unlikely Brentford capture all three points. 

Over the same time period, road underdogs off a win as favorites that lost the previous head-to-head are 35-167 SU, assuming the game number is between 10 and 38. 

When their opponent won their previous game by at least two goals, those dogs drop to 9-39 SU. 

Two more systems suggest Everton do no worse than a draw. 

Since 2012-13, home favorites between -0.5 and -1 against a previous favorite on a win streak between two and five are 63.1% SU and have lost only 36 of 104 games. 

In the last three seasons, those home favorites are 20-8-1 ATS and have lost outright only eight times. 

Finally, home teams off a win as underdogs against a previous favorite are 56.7% ATS. Over the last three years, those teams are 66% ATS. 

All those metrics tell me Everton won’t do worse than a point at Goodison Park. 

As for the total, something interesting is happening with the odds. 

Both teams to score is juiced to -160 while over 2.5 goals is -135. However, Everton’s team total is juiced -155 to the under while Brentford’s is juiced -190 to the under. 

Those prices tell me this match will stay under 3.5 goals. This season, Everton have seen only eight games clear 3.5 goals. 

Given the strength of the Toffees’ defense – they’re a top-six side in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes – I’ll buy low on Brentford’s defense against a weak attack. 

Take the under on Saturday at Goodison Park as a result. 

Everton Form 

April 24 vs. Liverpool: 2-0, W

April 21 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W

April 15 at Chelsea: 0-6, L

April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W

April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

Brentford Form

April 20 at Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 13 vs. Sheffield United: 2-0, W

April 6 at Aston Villa: 3-3, D

April 3 vs. Brighton: 0-0, D

March 30 vs. Manchester United: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.