- Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
- Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has earned points in three straight games vs. Spurs.
- Why bettors should expect a win from the visitors on Sunday.
In the latest edition of a famed Premier League rivalry, Arsenal travels to face Tottenham in the North London Derby.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side enters this match in great form. They thrashed Chelsea 5-0 in the midweek and have won two games in a row.
As for Tottenham, they’ll have a rest edge on Sunday but produced a terrible result in their last game. On the road at Newcastle United, they lost 4-0.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s clash.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Tottenham
- Arsenal Moneyline: -115
- Tottenham Moneyline: +260
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Arsenal Moneyline (-115)
The rest advantage for Tottenham is definitely concerning, but history says Tottenham are unlikely to earn points.
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs off a loss that allowed three or more goals are 22-176 SU against favorites off a win with a win percentage higher than 50%.
They also struggle to pick up a point. In those 194 contests, those teams have earned a point only 64 times.
It gets even less profitable for Tottenham.
When you shrink the sample down to consider dogs off a loss by three or more goals against teams off a win by three or more, bettors will find they’re 0-31 SU and 7-24 against +0.5.
From a metrics standpoint, Tottenham’s goalkeeper is propping up a defense amongst the worst in the Premier League.
Spurs sit 13th in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Excluding own goals, Spurs have also underperformed their post-shot expected goals total by 4.7 goals.
That’s going to put them in trouble against an Arsenal side with a +1.09 expected goal differential per 90 minutes away from home, best in the Premier League.
Driving that success is their brilliant defense, which has allowed only 11.6 expected goals away from home.
Against a Tottenham side that’s only seventh in expected goals at home, expect Arsenal’s defense to limit their opponent’s opportunities.
As a result, back the visitors to earn all three points.
Arsenal Form
April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W
April 20 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L (Champions League)
April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L
April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)
Tottenham Form
April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L
April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W
April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W
March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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