Arsenal vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 2:22 PM
  • Arsenal is a -0.5-goal favorite against Tottenham.
  • Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has earned points in three straight games vs. Spurs.
  • Why bettors should expect a win from the visitors on Sunday.

In the latest edition of a famed Premier League rivalry, Arsenal travels to face Tottenham in the North London Derby. 

Manager Mikel Arteta’s side enters this match in great form. They thrashed Chelsea 5-0 in the midweek and have won two games in a row. 

As for Tottenham, they’ll have a rest edge on Sunday but produced a terrible result in their last game. On the road at Newcastle United, they lost 4-0. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s clash. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Tottenham

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -115
  • Tottenham Moneyline: +260
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Tottenham

Arsenal Moneyline (-115) 

The rest advantage for Tottenham is definitely concerning, but history says Tottenham are unlikely to earn points. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs off a loss that allowed three or more goals are 22-176 SU against favorites off a win with a win percentage higher than 50%. 

They also struggle to pick up a point. In those 194 contests, those teams have earned a point only 64 times. 

It gets even less profitable for Tottenham. 

When you shrink the sample down to consider dogs off a loss by three or more goals against teams off a win by three or more, bettors will find they’re 0-31 SU and 7-24 against +0.5. 

From a metrics standpoint, Tottenham’s goalkeeper is propping up a defense amongst the worst in the Premier League. 

Spurs sit 13th in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, according to 

Excluding own goals, Spurs have also underperformed their post-shot expected goals total by 4.7 goals.

That’s going to put them in trouble against an Arsenal side with a +1.09 expected goal differential per 90 minutes away from home, best in the Premier League. 

Driving that success is their brilliant defense, which has allowed only 11.6 expected goals away from home. 

Against a Tottenham side that’s only seventh in expected goals at home, expect Arsenal’s defense to limit their opponent’s opportunities. 

As a result, back the visitors to earn all three points. 

Arsenal Form 

April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W

April 20 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W

April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L (Champions League)

April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L

April 9 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-2, D (Champions League)

Tottenham Form

April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.