Man City vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 2:19 PM
  • Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
  • City has earned wins in two of the last three against Nottingham Forest.
  • Why the market is overrating Manchester City.

As their quest for a fourth consecutive league title continues, Manchester City travels to face Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. 

It marks the second match in four days for the title holders. They’ll travel to Forest after facing Brighton on the English South coast on Thursday. 

Forest enters this match in less-than-desirable form. They lost 2-0 at Everton the previous weekend and are winless in their last three matches. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Man City Moneyline: -275
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +650
  • Draw Moneyline: +425
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+115/-160)

EPL Prediction – Man City vs. Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest Spread (+1.5, -130)

Although the Tricky Trees lost the reverse fixture at the Etihad, the underlying metrics suggest the match was closer than the 2-0 final. 

Forest created one expected goal compared to only 1.3 for Manchester City. Even in terms of the post-shot expected goals battle, Forest won 1.0-0.4, per 

A City red card on 46 minutes devalues some of those offensive metrics for Sunday’s hosts, but this feels like a good buy-low spot against a City side playing on short rest. 

Although it’s a small sample, Forest have held their own against the title threats at home. 

In two matches against Liverpool and Arsenal, they’ve stayed within this number on both occasions. 

Not only did they stay within this number in terms of expected goals, too, but they limited those two sides to only four shots on target. 

Forest have also quietly produced outstanding metrics at home for a bottom-half side. 

Entering Sunday’s game, they’re sitting on a +0.13 xGDiff per 90 minutes at the City Ground and have dropped all three points only seven times. 

Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s side also matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs at +1.5 or higher off a loss as underdogs that lost the previous head-to-head meeting are 62.5% ATS. 

Just this season, those teams are 15-9 ATS. 

With City playing on short rest, take the home dogs to do no worse than a cover with more time between games. 

Man City Form 

April 25 at Brighton

April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

April 17 vs. Real Madrid: 1-1, D (Champions League, Madrid Win on PK’s)

April 13 vs. Luton Town: 5-1, W

April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D (Champions League)

Nottingham Forest Form

April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D

April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L

April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W

March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.