- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Chelsea.
- Villa have earned points in three of their last four against Chelsea.
- Two systems suggest Aston Villa will do no worse than a point on Saturday.
Following their blowout defeat on Tuesday at Arsenal, Chelsea face another enormous task by traveling to face Aston Villa.
The Blues picked up a 3-1 win when these sides last met in the FA Cup. However, Villa have earned wins in two consecutive league meetings.
When Villa last played, they captured a 3-1 home win against Bournemouth, their second straight win in Premier League competition.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +125
- Chelsea Moneyline: +188
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Chelsea
Aston Villa Moneyline (+125) | Aston Villa Double Chance (-250) as Parlay Piece
If Chelsea earn all three points on Saturday, it will be a minor miracle for manager Mauricio Pochettino.
Following Chelsea’s 5-0 loss to Arsenal on Tuesday, the market reacted by moving Aston Villa from +140 to +125 at BetMGM.
Although I’d love push protection in this match, history says it’s Aston Villa or nothing in this game.
Since the 2012-13 season, road underdogs off a loss by two or more goals are 16-146 SU against the three-way moneyline and have earned points in 62 of 160 games.
It gets worse.
When their opponent won their previous game by multiple goals, those dogs are 0-26 SU and have earned points only eight times.
There’s another system suggesting Chelsea won’t win this game.
Over the same timeframe, dogs off an outright loss that allowed at least three goals facing a team that won their previous game, are 46-294 SU, including 125-209 against +0.5.
However, when the opponent has a winning percentage north of 50%, those dogs drop to 22-176 SU, including 64-130 against +0.5.
Even if you willfully ignore all those historical trends, the underlying metrics suggest Chelsea are in trouble.
Excluding Tuesday’s performance at Arsenal, Chelsea owned a -0.13 expected goal differential per 90 minutes away from home.
Sample their two previous road matches before Arsenal – Brentford and Sheffield United – and bettors will find they posted a -0.55 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Conversely, Villa own a +0.64 xGDiff per 90 at Villa Park this season and have dropped points only five times in 17 league fixtures.
Plus, Villa is 10-5 ATS under Unai Emery as home favorites against a team that failed to win their previous game.
For those reasons, take Aston Villa to earn all three points on Saturday. If you worry about a draw, I love using Aston Villa Double Chance as a parlay piece.
Aston Villa Form
April 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W
April 18 at Lille: 1-2, L (Europa Conference League, Villa Win on PK’s)
April 14 at Arsenal: 2-0, W
April 11 vs. Lille: 2-1, W
April 6 vs. Brentford: 3-3, D
Chelsea Form
April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
April 20 at Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
April 15 vs. Everton: 6-0, W
April 7 at Sheffield United: 2-2, D
April 4 vs. Manchester United: 4-3, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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