- Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
- The Red Devils earned a 1-0 win in the last meeting but face myriad injury concerns.
- Why Burnley are worth a shot on the moneyline.
Playing their third game in less than a week, Manchester United welcome Burnley to Old Trafford on Saturday.
On Sunday, United reached the FA Cup final after dispatching Coventry City on penalties. In the midweek against Sheffield United, they struggled defensively but won 4-2.
As for Burnley, they earned a 4-1 win over Sheffield United on April 20, their last league game. In their last five games, they’ve dropped all three points only once.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Burnley
- Manchester United Moneyline: -210
- Burnley Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +400
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Burnley
Burnley Spread (+1.5, -155) | Burnley Moneyline (+475)
This is not a Manchester United team built to win games by multiple games.
Including Wednesday’s match against Sheffield United, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has closed at -145 or higher 10 times. They’ve covered only two of those fixtures.
Although they have three wins by multiple goals this season, two were undeserved in terms of expected goals, with a third coming because United scored two penalties.
Additionally, this is a Burnley side that has excelled at covering spreads away from home. Through 17 road fixtures, they’re 11-6 ATS away from Turf Moor.
Manager Vincent Kompany’s side also matches a historically profitable betting system in terms of covering this spread.
Since the 2012-13 season, road underdogs with a win percentage under 30% sitting between +1.5 and +2.5 are 63.3% ATS, assuming two other factors:
- The previous head-to-head margin is between -5 and -1
- The team’s game number is between 17 and 38
When the opponent has four or fewer days between games, those teams jump to 69.2% ATS.
Now for the adventurous element: the Burnley moneyline.
In addition to the system suggesting they’ll cover the spread, Burnley match the historical profile of a team that wins outright.
Since 2012-13, road underdogs with a winning percentage under 30% sitting between +355 and +2000 are 57-245 SU for a 44.6% ROI, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head margin was between -1 and +1
- The team’s game number is between 18 and 38
When those underdogs have allowed two or fewer goals in seven straight games, they jump to 9-20 SU for a 118.9% ROI.
Although Burnley lost the reverse fixture, they won the expected goals battle (1.1 to 1.0) and stayed even on big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Add in the rest advantage for Burnley, and I’ll take a shot with them to win outright.
Manchester United Form
April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
Burnley Form
April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W
April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L
April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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