Manchester United vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Burnley's head coach Vincent Kompany gives instructions to his players during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Burnley, at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024.
(AP Photo/Jon Super)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 2:21 PM
  • Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • The Red Devils earned a 1-0 win in the last meeting but face myriad injury concerns.
  • Why Burnley are worth a shot on the moneyline.

Playing their third game in less than a week, Manchester United welcome Burnley to Old Trafford on Saturday. 

On Sunday, United reached the FA Cup final after dispatching Coventry City on penalties. In the midweek against Sheffield United, they struggled defensively but won 4-2.

As for Burnley, they earned a 4-1 win over Sheffield United on April 20, their last league game. In their last five games, they’ve dropped all three points only once. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Burnley

  • Manchester United Moneyline: -210
  • Burnley Moneyline: +475
  • Draw Moneyline: +400
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Burnley

Burnley Spread (+1.5, -155) | Burnley Moneyline (+475)

This is not a Manchester United team built to win games by multiple games. 

Including Wednesday’s match against Sheffield United, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has closed at -145 or higher 10 times. They’ve covered only two of those fixtures. 

Although they have three wins by multiple goals this season, two were undeserved in terms of expected goals, with a third coming because United scored two penalties. 

Additionally, this is a Burnley side that has excelled at covering spreads away from home. Through 17 road fixtures, they’re 11-6 ATS away from Turf Moor. 

Manager Vincent Kompany’s side also matches a historically profitable betting system in terms of covering this spread. 

Since the 2012-13 season, road underdogs with a win percentage under 30% sitting between +1.5 and +2.5 are 63.3% ATS, assuming two other factors:

  • The previous head-to-head margin is between -5 and -1
  • The team’s game number is between 17 and 38

When the opponent has four or fewer days between games, those teams jump to 69.2% ATS. 

Now for the adventurous element: the Burnley moneyline. 

In addition to the system suggesting they’ll cover the spread, Burnley match the historical profile of a team that wins outright. 

Since 2012-13, road underdogs with a winning percentage under 30% sitting between +355 and +2000 are 57-245 SU for a 44.6% ROI, assuming two factors: 

  • The previous head-to-head margin was between -1 and +1
  • The team’s game number is between 18 and 38

When those underdogs have allowed two or fewer goals in seven straight games, they jump to 9-20 SU for a 118.9% ROI. 

Although Burnley lost the reverse fixture, they won the expected goals battle (1.1 to 1.0) and stayed even on big scoring chances, per 

Add in the rest advantage for Burnley, and I’ll take a shot with them to win outright. 

Manchester United Form 

April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)

April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

Burnley Form

April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W

April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D

April 6 at Everton: 0-1, L

April 2 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D

March 30 at Chelsea: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.