Liverpool vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Liverpool's Diogo Jota, left, celebrates scoring his sides second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Burnley and Liverpool at Turf Moor stadium in Burnley, England, Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 25, 2024, 2:06 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • Liverpool’s title hopes took a hit at Goodison Park in a 2-0 loss on Wednesday.
  • Why bettors should look at the total for Saturday’s early game.

On the heels of a loss to their archrivals, Liverpool travel to play their third road game in a week against West Ham United. 

The Reds’ title hopes took a major hit on Tuesday as they lost 2-0 to Everton only a day after Arsenal blew out Chelsea 5-0. 

In good news, they now face a West Ham side off a bad loss to Crystal Palace that has lost five straight to Liverpool in all competitions. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s game. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. West Ham

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -175
  • West Ham Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-130)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. West Ham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-105)

I have absolutely no faith in the West Ham defense to keep out a strong Liverpool attack. 

Sample their last two games, and bettors will find West Ham allowed 3.9 post-shot expected goals to Fulham and 3.4 psxG to Crystal Palace. 

For the entire season, those teams rank 9th and 15th, respectively, in post shot expected goals, per 

On Saturday, they’ll face a Liverpool side second in that category that created 3.35 psxG – one penalty included – in the reverse league fixture. 

Even more concerning – Liverpool hosted West Ham in the League Cup after that game and deployed a backup front line. In that game, they generated 5.11 psxG on 11 shots on target. 

West Ham’s defense is also 18th in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and 16th in npxGA per 90. 

Sample two home matches against fellow title threats Manchester City and Arsenal, and bettors will find the Hammers allowed both to clear 3.5 xG, with both scoring at least three goals. 

All that said, Liverpool’s road defense leaves a lot to be desired. 

Entering Saturday’s game, they’ve allowed 1.43 xG per 90 minutes away from home. Comparatively, they’re allowing only 0.94 xG per 90 at Anfield. 

They’ve also kept only four road clean sheets this season and face a Hammers side that has scored in all but four home matches. 

Half of those failures saw them play without Lucas Paqueta, so I’m confident West Ham contribute to the total against a Liverpool defense on short rest. 

Finally, this game matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2021-22 season, overs in games featuring a home dog against a side creating between 1.7 and 2.2 goals are 66.4% to the over, including 72.7% this season. 

As a result, take the over in Saturday’s early kickoff. 

Liverpool Form 

April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L

April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L

April 11 vs. Atalanta: 0-3, L (Europa League) 

West Ham Form

April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L

April 18 vs. Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)

April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L

April 11 at Leverkusen: 0-2, L

April 6 at Wolves: 2-1, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.