- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- Liverpool’s title hopes took a hit at Goodison Park in a 2-0 loss on Wednesday.
- Why bettors should look at the total for Saturday’s early game.
On the heels of a loss to their archrivals, Liverpool travel to play their third road game in a week against West Ham United.
The Reds’ title hopes took a major hit on Tuesday as they lost 2-0 to Everton only a day after Arsenal blew out Chelsea 5-0.
In good news, they now face a West Ham side off a bad loss to Crystal Palace that has lost five straight to Liverpool in all competitions.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s game.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. West Ham
- Liverpool Moneyline: -175
- West Ham Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +360
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-130)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. West Ham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-105)
I have absolutely no faith in the West Ham defense to keep out a strong Liverpool attack.
Sample their last two games, and bettors will find West Ham allowed 3.9 post-shot expected goals to Fulham and 3.4 psxG to Crystal Palace.
For the entire season, those teams rank 9th and 15th, respectively, in post shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
On Saturday, they’ll face a Liverpool side second in that category that created 3.35 psxG – one penalty included – in the reverse league fixture.
Even more concerning – Liverpool hosted West Ham in the League Cup after that game and deployed a backup front line. In that game, they generated 5.11 psxG on 11 shots on target.
West Ham’s defense is also 18th in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and 16th in npxGA per 90.
Sample two home matches against fellow title threats Manchester City and Arsenal, and bettors will find the Hammers allowed both to clear 3.5 xG, with both scoring at least three goals.
All that said, Liverpool’s road defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Entering Saturday’s game, they’ve allowed 1.43 xG per 90 minutes away from home. Comparatively, they’re allowing only 0.94 xG per 90 at Anfield.
They’ve also kept only four road clean sheets this season and face a Hammers side that has scored in all but four home matches.
Half of those failures saw them play without Lucas Paqueta, so I’m confident West Ham contribute to the total against a Liverpool defense on short rest.
Finally, this game matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2021-22 season, overs in games featuring a home dog against a side creating between 1.7 and 2.2 goals are 66.4% to the over, including 72.7% this season.
As a result, take the over in Saturday’s early kickoff.
Liverpool Form
April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W
April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L
April 11 vs. Atalanta: 0-3, L (Europa League)
West Ham Form
April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L
April 18 vs. Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L
April 11 at Leverkusen: 0-2, L
April 6 at Wolves: 2-1, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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