Everton vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi, centre, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Nottingham Forest at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 18, 2024, 3:49 PM
  • Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
  • The Toffees earned a 1-0 road win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • Why bettors should fade the Everton attack at home.

Call it the “mismanaged finances” derby as Everton get set to face Nottingham Forest at Goodison Park on Sunday. 

Both teams are currently flirting with the relegation zone. Everton, who have received an eight-point penalty, are two points clear of safety. 

As for Forest, they’re only a point clear of the drop zone after their four-point penalty. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Nottingham Forest

  • Everton Moneyline: +105
  • Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +250
  • Draw Moneyline: +250
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-115)

EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Nottingham Forest

Everton Team Total Under 1.5 (-135) 

Everton created next-to-nothing in the reverse fixture, and I struggle to see a scenario where they score twice. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, manager Sean Dyche’s side has scored two or more goals in a match only once. 

That came at home against Tottenham, who sit 13th in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. 

Forest is a much more disciplined defense. They’re sixth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and have drastically improved under Nuno Espirito Santo. 

Remove the first game under Santo in which Forest had a man sent off on 23 minutes and bettors will find they’ve held nine of 15 opponents under this number. 

Of the six teams that cleared it against Forest, five average north of 1.45 npxG per 90 minutes. 

It’s also a positive regression spot for Nottingham Forest’s defense. Over their last seven games, they’ve conceded nine goals off only 6.5 expected goals. 

For the entire season, Forest has conceded 53 non-penalty goals off only 44.7 non-penalty expected goals. 

The last time they faced Everton, Forest held the Toffees to only three shots on target, 0.67 expected goals and 0.36 post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, Everton’s underlying metrics are a bit misleading. They’re ninth offensively in npxG per 90 minutes but are 17th in post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes. 

They’ve also struggled to put quality shots on target against above-average defenses. They’ve created 1.09 npxG per 90 against sides fifth through ninth in npxGA per 90. 

However, that comes against only 0.73 psxG per 90 minutes in seven matches against such sides. 

As a result, take the under on their team total against a sneaky good defense in Forest. 

Everton Form 

April 15 at Chelsea: 0-6, L

April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W

April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L

March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L

Nottingham Forest Form

April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D

April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L

April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W

March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D

March 16 at Luton Town: 1-1, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.