- Everton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- The Toffees earned a 1-0 road win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Why bettors should fade the Everton attack at home.
Call it the “mismanaged finances” derby as Everton get set to face Nottingham Forest at Goodison Park on Sunday.
Both teams are currently flirting with the relegation zone. Everton, who have received an eight-point penalty, are two points clear of safety.
As for Forest, they’re only a point clear of the drop zone after their four-point penalty.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Everton vs. Nottingham Forest
- Everton Moneyline: +105
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +250
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-115)
EPL Prediction – Everton vs. Nottingham Forest
Everton Team Total Under 1.5 (-135)
Everton created next-to-nothing in the reverse fixture, and I struggle to see a scenario where they score twice.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, manager Sean Dyche’s side has scored two or more goals in a match only once.
That came at home against Tottenham, who sit 13th in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Forest is a much more disciplined defense. They’re sixth in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes and have drastically improved under Nuno Espirito Santo.
Remove the first game under Santo in which Forest had a man sent off on 23 minutes and bettors will find they’ve held nine of 15 opponents under this number.
Of the six teams that cleared it against Forest, five average north of 1.45 npxG per 90 minutes.
It’s also a positive regression spot for Nottingham Forest’s defense. Over their last seven games, they’ve conceded nine goals off only 6.5 expected goals.
For the entire season, Forest has conceded 53 non-penalty goals off only 44.7 non-penalty expected goals.
The last time they faced Everton, Forest held the Toffees to only three shots on target, 0.67 expected goals and 0.36 post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Plus, Everton’s underlying metrics are a bit misleading. They’re ninth offensively in npxG per 90 minutes but are 17th in post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’ve also struggled to put quality shots on target against above-average defenses. They’ve created 1.09 npxG per 90 against sides fifth through ninth in npxGA per 90.
However, that comes against only 0.73 psxG per 90 minutes in seven matches against such sides.
As a result, take the under on their team total against a sneaky good defense in Forest.
Everton Form
April 15 at Chelsea: 0-6, L
April 6 vs. Burnley: 1-0, W
April 2 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
March 30 at Bournemouth: 1-2, L
March 9 at Manchester United: 0-2, L
Nottingham Forest Form
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
April 7 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
April 2 vs. Fulham: 3-1, W
March 30 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
March 16 at Luton Town: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 16-10-3 | 58 | 29 |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-6-7 | 54 | 14 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-8 | 49 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 14-6-9 | 48 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-11-6 | 47 | 6 |
| Fulham | 12-9-8 | 45 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-9 | 44 | 12 |
| Brentford | 12-5-12 | 41 | 5 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Manchester United | 10-7-12 | 37 | -3 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-15 | 34 | 12 |
| Everton | 7-13-9 | 34 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-7-13 | 34 | -16 |
| Wolves | 7-5-17 | 26 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-18 | 17 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-20 | 17 | -40 |
| Southampton | 2-3-24 | 9 | -49 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-13-5 | 46.6% | 4-7-3 | 39.3% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-17-2 | 37.9% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-16-1 | 43.1% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 12-13-4 | 48.3% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 6-6-2 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-17-1 | 39.7% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
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