Crystal Palace vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Crystal Palace players celebrate after Crystal Palace's Michael Olise, centre, scored his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Crystal Palace at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec.16, 2023.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 17, 2024, 12:54 PM
  • Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • These teams played to a 1-1 draw in a reverse fixture at London Stadium.
  • Why a healthy Palace is worth a bet off their biggest win of the season.

It’s a London derby at Selhurst Park on Sunday as Crystal Palace get set to face West Ham United. 

The Eagles pulled off a stunner last weekend by heading to Anfield and handing Liverpool a 1-0 defeat. Although a bit lucky, it’s the first time Liverpool lost at home in 27 games. 

As for West Ham, the effects of short rest were noticed on Sunday. As home favorites against Fulham, the Hammers dropped all three points in a 2-0 defeat. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. West Ham

  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: +130
  • West Ham Moneyline: +200
  • Draw Moneyline: +250
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+105)

EPL Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. West Ham

Crystal Palace Moneyline (+130)

This shapes up as a great scheduling spot for Palace, who face West Ham on short rest with their key attackers back in the lineup. 

The Hammers have Bayer Leverkusen at home on Thursday in the Europa League, down 2-0 on aggregate. 

In theory, manager David Moyes could wave the white flag, but the deficit is small enough that I expect he’ll deploy his key personnel. 

That means a lackluster West Ham defense will travel on short rest to take on a high-flying Crystal Palace attack. 

It’s a small sample, but Palace have played five games this season with both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in the Starting XI. 

They’re 3-2 SU in those five games – including 2-0 at home – and have created 1.36 xG per 90 and 1.52 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes. 

For the entire season, Palace have created 1.17 xG per 90 minutes and 1.14 psxG per 90 minutes, according to 

On Sunday, they get a West Ham defense ripe for the taking. 

Moyes’ side sits fifth-worst in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season and has allowed the fourth-most expected goals away from home. 

It has gotten worse recently. 

Even if you remove a game against Newcastle United from the sample, bettors will find West Ham allowed 1.73 non-penalty psxG to Wolves and 3.11 non-penalty psxG to Everton. 

With their top duo in the lineup, Palace are closer to replicating Everton in terms of expected goals per 90 minutes. 

This game also could see some regression from both teams. 

Palace are sitting on a -3 home goal differential compared to a +1.3 expected while West Ham have a -7 road goal differential against a -9.4 expected goal differential. 

Finally, home favorites off a win as underdogs facing an opponent off a loss are 78-51 SU since the 2012-13 season. 

When they earned points in the previous meeting, they’re 44-24 SU. 

Take the hosts to earn all three points for the second straight game. 

Crystal Palace Form 

April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W

April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L

April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L

March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

March 9 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D

West Ham Form

April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L

April 11 at Bayer Leverkusen: 0-2, L (Europa League)

April 6 at Wolves: 2-1, W

April 2 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D

March 30 at Newcastle United: 3-4, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.