- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- These teams played to a 1-1 draw in a reverse fixture at London Stadium.
- Why a healthy Palace is worth a bet off their biggest win of the season.
It’s a London derby at Selhurst Park on Sunday as Crystal Palace get set to face West Ham United.
The Eagles pulled off a stunner last weekend by heading to Anfield and handing Liverpool a 1-0 defeat. Although a bit lucky, it’s the first time Liverpool lost at home in 27 games.
As for West Ham, the effects of short rest were noticed on Sunday. As home favorites against Fulham, the Hammers dropped all three points in a 2-0 defeat.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Crystal Palace vs. West Ham
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +130
- West Ham Moneyline: +200
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-135/+105)
EPL Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. West Ham
Crystal Palace Moneyline (+130)
This shapes up as a great scheduling spot for Palace, who face West Ham on short rest with their key attackers back in the lineup.
The Hammers have Bayer Leverkusen at home on Thursday in the Europa League, down 2-0 on aggregate.
In theory, manager David Moyes could wave the white flag, but the deficit is small enough that I expect he’ll deploy his key personnel.
That means a lackluster West Ham defense will travel on short rest to take on a high-flying Crystal Palace attack.
It’s a small sample, but Palace have played five games this season with both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in the Starting XI.
They’re 3-2 SU in those five games – including 2-0 at home – and have created 1.36 xG per 90 and 1.52 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
For the entire season, Palace have created 1.17 xG per 90 minutes and 1.14 psxG per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
On Sunday, they get a West Ham defense ripe for the taking.
Moyes’ side sits fifth-worst in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes this season and has allowed the fourth-most expected goals away from home.
It has gotten worse recently.
Even if you remove a game against Newcastle United from the sample, bettors will find West Ham allowed 1.73 non-penalty psxG to Wolves and 3.11 non-penalty psxG to Everton.
With their top duo in the lineup, Palace are closer to replicating Everton in terms of expected goals per 90 minutes.
This game also could see some regression from both teams.
Palace are sitting on a -3 home goal differential compared to a +1.3 expected while West Ham have a -7 road goal differential against a -9.4 expected goal differential.
Finally, home favorites off a win as underdogs facing an opponent off a loss are 78-51 SU since the 2012-13 season.
When they earned points in the previous meeting, they’re 44-24 SU.
Take the hosts to earn all three points for the second straight game.
Crystal Palace Form
April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
April 6 vs. Manchester City: 2-4, L
April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L
March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
March 9 vs. Luton Town: 1-1, D
West Ham Form
April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L
April 11 at Bayer Leverkusen: 0-2, L (Europa League)
April 6 at Wolves: 2-1, W
April 2 vs. Tottenham: 1-1, D
March 30 at Newcastle United: 3-4, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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