Liverpool vs. Fulham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Fulham's Antonee Robinson runs after a loose ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 19, 2024, 3:16 PM
  • Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
  • Liverpool earned all three points in a thrilling 4-3 win at Anfield.
  • Bettors should play this prop market for Sunday’s fixture.

Ahead of Sunday’s Premier League fixture at Craven Cottage, I’m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Fulham prediction. 

These teams enter Sunday’s game having experienced opposite results last weekend. Fulham captured a 2-0 road win at West Ham, while Liverpool lost 1-0 at home to Crystal Palace. 

When these sides played their last league meeting, Fulham captured a 4-3 home win. They subsequently dispatched Marco Silva’s side 3-2 on aggregate in a League Cup tie. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Fulham

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -190
  • Fulham Moneyline: +425
  • Draw Moneyline: +375
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Fulham

Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score (+150)

The current run of finishing from Liverpool is insanely worrying, but I’m hopeful their underlying metrics eventually catch up. 

Including their midweek Europa League home match against Atalanta last week, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has scored two goals off 9.14 expected in their last three games. 

In terms of their Premier League form, Liverpool enters this game having scored 72 goals off 73.4 expected, rendering them a slight positive regression candidate. 

In their last five Premier League matches, Liverpool have created 2.45 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Over that span, they’ve scored six goals from open play off 12.27 non-penalty expected goals, per 

In terms of their moneyline angle, Liverpool match a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2021-22 season, favorites with a winning percentage higher than 45% are 36-12 SU, assuming three other factors: 

  • The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +5
  • The team’s previous game margin is between -1 and -5
  • The closing moneyline is between -300 and +135

The system remains profitable over a longer period. Since the 2012-13 season, such teams are 117-51 SU. 

All that said, I can’t see a scenario where Liverpool keeps Fulham off the scoresheet. 

The Cottagers have managed a goal in three straight and four of the last five against Liverpool. 

They’re also creating 1.62 expected goals per 90 minutes at home this season and have created at least one expected goal in 15 straight at Craven Cottage. 

Liverpool have also kept only four clean sheets away from Anfield this season and surrendered 1.79 psxG to Fulham at Anfield. 

As a result, buy low on the visitors in what I expect to be an eventful fixture. 

Liverpool Form 

April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League) 

April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L

April 7 at Manchester United: 2-2, D

April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W

March 31 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W

Fulham Form

April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W

April 6 vs. Newcastle United: 0-1, L

April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L

March 30 at Sheffield United: 3-3, D

March 16 vs. Tottenham: 3-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.