- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Liverpool earned all three points in a thrilling 4-3 win at Anfield.
- Bettors should play this prop market for Sunday’s fixture.
Ahead of Sunday’s Premier League fixture at Craven Cottage, I’m here to offer a Liverpool vs. Fulham prediction.
These teams enter Sunday’s game having experienced opposite results last weekend. Fulham captured a 2-0 road win at West Ham, while Liverpool lost 1-0 at home to Crystal Palace.
When these sides played their last league meeting, Fulham captured a 4-3 home win. They subsequently dispatched Marco Silva’s side 3-2 on aggregate in a League Cup tie.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Fulham
- Liverpool Moneyline: -190
- Fulham Moneyline: +425
- Draw Moneyline: +375
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Fulham
Liverpool to Win & Both Teams to Score (+150)
The current run of finishing from Liverpool is insanely worrying, but I’m hopeful their underlying metrics eventually catch up.
Including their midweek Europa League home match against Atalanta last week, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has scored two goals off 9.14 expected in their last three games.
In terms of their Premier League form, Liverpool enters this game having scored 72 goals off 73.4 expected, rendering them a slight positive regression candidate.
In their last five Premier League matches, Liverpool have created 2.45 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
Over that span, they’ve scored six goals from open play off 12.27 non-penalty expected goals, per fotmob.com.
In terms of their moneyline angle, Liverpool match a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2021-22 season, favorites with a winning percentage higher than 45% are 36-12 SU, assuming three other factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between +1 and +5
- The team’s previous game margin is between -1 and -5
- The closing moneyline is between -300 and +135
The system remains profitable over a longer period. Since the 2012-13 season, such teams are 117-51 SU.
All that said, I can’t see a scenario where Liverpool keeps Fulham off the scoresheet.
The Cottagers have managed a goal in three straight and four of the last five against Liverpool.
They’re also creating 1.62 expected goals per 90 minutes at home this season and have created at least one expected goal in 15 straight at Craven Cottage.
Liverpool have also kept only four clean sheets away from Anfield this season and surrendered 1.79 psxG to Fulham at Anfield.
As a result, buy low on the visitors in what I expect to be an eventful fixture.
Liverpool Form
April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Crystal Palace: 0-1, L
April 7 at Manchester United: 2-2, D
April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W
March 31 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Fulham Form
April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W
April 6 vs. Newcastle United: 0-1, L
April 2 at Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L
March 30 at Sheffield United: 3-3, D
March 16 vs. Tottenham: 3-0, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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